STORM UPDATE- Major winter storm likely Monday night

Good afternoon-

I am crazy busy, but I have to take time out of my day to state that the storm has now gone from "Yeah, something could happen" to "Something is probably going to happen" to "It is going to happen without a doubt".

What this means? For me, it means that I am now shifting my focus from "is it coming" to "how much snow will there be and what are the impacts looking like?". For a storm four days out, the agreement between all 3 major winter computer models (GFS, Euro, CMC) is remarkable, as not only do they all have the storm setting up in the same way...they have almost exactly the same snowfall amounts...so I have a pretty good idea of where to start.

For my snowfall forecasts this year, I'm going to do something a bit different. I will continue to say "so and so for this area", but I'll also give range 'percentages' for certain major cities to help people realize what the odds are of getting more or less than forecasted.

For a general rule, I'll start with my official prediction of 5-10" of snow north of exit 9 on I-91, with the highest amounts along and north of 84 and in Northeastern Connecticut. The shoreline can expect to receive 3-6". In both cases, locally higher amounts are possible.

Now, let's try this.

For New Haven

0"- 15%

1-3"- 30%

3-6"- 40%

6-10"- 10%

10-15"- 5%

For Meriden-

0"- 5%

1-3"- 15%

3-6"- 30%

6-10"- 40%

10-15"- 10%

For Waterbury-

0"- Negligible

1-3"- 15%

3-6"- 20%

6-10"- 45%

10-15"- 20%

For Hartford-

See Waterbury- the odds are about the same, perhaps add 5% to the lower amounts from the higher.

For New London-

0"- 25%

1-3"- 45%

3-6"- 20%

6-10"- 10%

Finally, for Litchfield-

Essentially the same as Waterbury, but perhaps add 5% to the higher amounts from the lower.

There you have it.

The first name on WFSB's name list is Anna- this may well be it.

There is another chance of snow on New Years' Eve, but let's get through this one first.