Friday, December 30, 2016

12/30- Farewell to 2016, a Boring Year of Weather

Happy Friday everyone-

Please note that this will be my last post until January 9th, barring some unforseen storm as I will be in Disney World from Monday to Saturday next week.

On that note...we get to do our annual recap post today as the sands of time continue to roll through the years. Farewell to 2016!

Image result for goodbye 2016

First things first though- the actual forecast for the next week. Stay safe this morning- black ice has developed overnight and the roads are a mess- take it slow! For the most part, it's really not too bad but...there could be some mixed precipitation in the area right as the ball drops tomorrow night. It won't accumulate at all but...it will make standing in Times Square a bit miserable. I cannot rule out some snow showers today but I am not too worried about them- maybe an inch can accumulate in the heaviest ones. Beyond that, Monday is the trouble spot as icy weather is expected with some freezing rain in the morning hours...before it transitions to just regular rain by the afternoon. Tuesday looks to be a total washout but Wednesday looks stunning, with highs in the 50s(!) and sunny skies. The next chance for a significant snowstorm doesn't look like it falls until around 1/10, so enjoy the next bit of time with limited frozen precip!

Now to look back on 2016-

We were bone dry this year...although we have made some progress since mid-October, most of the state is still in a significant drought.

The most notable event of January was without a doubt Blizzard Ana, the biggest snowstorm of the calendar year. Although this was much more significant in areas just to our south- New York got nearly 3ft(!), it still proved quite a mess, added to by the fact that it was not expected to have a major impact until about 12 hours before the snow started. The result was that much of southern Connecticut picked up around a foot of the white stuff. Otherwise, the month was a great indicator of the snowless, mild winter of 2015-16. Also noteworthy was the formation of Hurricane Alex in the Azores- the furthest northeast hurricane ever recorded- and it happened in the dead of winter. That's just weird.

February was much the same, though one significant snowfall was experienced thanks to Winter Storm Barbara on the 6th, which dropped roughly 10" of snow on our area. Another system struck the following Monday with around another 6", but then the active pattern ended with some record cold- temperatures dropped to -15(!!!) the following weekend- and then the snow dried up for another month and a half.

March was a very routine month here in Connecticut, again notable for its' extreme lack of precipitation and modest temperatures. Despite that, there was a roughly 2-5" snowfall on the Vernal Equinox...as well as pretty nice weather for Easter with temps in the low 60s.

April started with quite the shock, with back-to-back 2-4" snowfalls resulting in the snowiest April since 1997...but we quickly moderated things beyond that and continued to have a dry spell. It rained some to be sure- but not nearly as much as it should have been for that time of year.

May was highlighted by unseasonably cool temperatures and a brief threat around Memorial Day from what would ultimately become Tropical Storm Bonnie, but a rain event caused the hot dogs of the holiday itself to be quite wet.

June was also a routine month in the weather world, with perhaps the most notable event being a moderate rainfall at the end of the month. As can be expected that time of year, there were several days with pop up showers, but those were few in nature and scattered widely...not doing much damage to the drought, which by this point had exceeded 6" for the state.

July featured some hot weather as you would expect, with a few days nearing or touching 100 in the beginning of the month, which would prove to feature above average temperatures for the majority of the month, but also included a severe outbreak of sorts on July 3, but the bark was worse than the bite that time...alarmingly, the month was still dry...expanding the drought.

August proved to include a very noteworthy event in which a tornado struck North Haven, downing a number of trees and power lines on an otherwise rather stormy but not severe day...it was essentially that one cell that wound up with a quick spin-up, illustrating the difficulties of forecasting severe weather.

September's most notable event was the impacts we felt from Hurricane Hermine, which crossed Florida and moved up the coast, prompting Tropical Storm Warnings for our area for the first time in five years...but the system jogged just far enough to our east and spared us the most significant impacts. By the end of the month, we finally began to dent the drought but not nearly to the extent we needed to, and water levels were approaching record low levels here.

October's most notable event meteorologically was a storm that will long live in infamy...not here necessarily (although it certainly gave us mets quite a fright in the early part of the month) and that of course was Hurricane Matthew, which killed over 1,000 people in Haiti before paralelling the Florida coast within about 20 miles, finally making landfall in South Carolina at category 1 intensity, but it had once been the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic in nine years. Undoubtedly, this is one name that will be retired from the basins name list...with Earl being another possibility...we'll know in the spring. Also, Hurricane Nicole struck Bermuda directly at category 4 intensity, but the sure recipe for disaster never really materialized to the extent feared. The seasons' first snowfall occurred on Halloween for many.

November was highlighted by a bit of drought busting rain- not nearly enough to erase the whole thing, but we did make a dent in it- as well as parts of Litchfield County picking up a foot of lake effect snow, a remarkably strange and rare event on November 20. Thanksgiving here was quite wet as well, causing some travel difficulties.

Finally, December will go into the record books as the most "typical" December in recent years, breaking the warm streak of the last two years, which included Winter Storm Albie, the first December named storm since Ashford in 2013. Several other wintry precip events occurred as well, including a close call to a monster storm yesterday, while Christmas Day proved to be pretty nice but not quite white for most as much of Albie's snow melted in a rainstorm on Xmas Eve.

All in all, with the exception of a very few events, it was a forgettable year here, which is not necessarily a bad thing by any means. Overall, it has been a crazy year worldwide overall, but this is the time of year to look forward as well. It's been a pleasure to be blogging here for my third year, and I will continue as well as we begin our 2017. Have a very, very happy new year and first week of '17. See you on the 9th!

Image result for happy 2017

Thursday, December 29, 2016

12/29- STORM WARNING NW HILLS

Good Thursday all-

Well, it's a fragile forecast but it appears as though most of CT (95%) of us have dodged the bullet here. The exception is the far NW hills...who may see double-digit snowfall...but even that is iffy at best. We have intense model disagreement there, with some showing 2" and others showing a foot. I'll take the middle road and go with a conservative 4-7"...but...don't be shocked to see more or less than that. For the rest of our area...1-3" seems reasonable...but even that may be rather optimistic...it's entirely within the realm of possibility that many towns south of 84 see a total of diddly squat...so don't be shocked if that occurs either. Of course, a microscopic shift in the track could change everything...so we'll have to see if that occurs and which direction that takes place in. That said...I feel pretty confident with these numbers and expect them to verify quite nicely. Other than today, no true winter storms are in sight, though I cannot rule out a bit of mixed precip right around ball drop time...and the first storm of 2017 will come on Tuesday...but mostly in the form of rain.

Stay safe out there- there is certainly the potential for icy spots on the roads and your driveway- I took a nasty fall myself the other day as I was getting the mail- so go as slow as you need to!

Tomorrow will be my year-in-review post...and it won't be nearly as entertaining as last year's! 2016 was not the most eventful weather year at all...but there were still a few noteworthy days as you would expect!

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

12/28- STORM WARNING- Significant Winter Storm Likely Tomorrow

Good Wednesday all-

A WINTER STORM WATCH is up for Northern Litchfield County, and all of Hartford and Tolland Counties. Southern Litchfield has a high end WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

I have a real forecasting nightmare at the moment with some intense model disagreement about a major nor'easter that is going to be impacting our weather for tomorrow. I can pretty much guarantee a major impact of some kind...but exactly what kind remains to be seen. The GFS and CMC models are saying almost all rain, with only a few sloppy inches (1-3") in the northwest hills, the European model is saying 3-6" for everyone north of the immediate shoreline, and the NAM (which has been the most accurate in recent years) is showing 6-12" for parts of far northern Connecticut, with 2-5" totals commonplace south of there. That helps...how? Well it does allow me to establish this- I think a reasonable figure for interior portions of the southern counties is 2-5". The real trick here is going to be forecasting for the Litchfield Hills and parts of the northeastern hilltops as well- essentially the good old "along and north of 84" type deal...I will begin with 4-8"...which is in close agreement with the National Weather Service as well.

That said, there is no looming significant precipitation beyond this storm until Tuesday, though some mixed precip is possible right around midnight on New Year's Eve (how wonderful!)...and the Tuesday system *should* be a primarily rain event. I will keep you posted if something changes with that though!

Today in weather history- December 28, 1955- Anchorage, AK is hit with a record breaking 17.7" of snow in 24 hours, which is probably not what you thought that record would be! The reason this is relatively low is their location on the immediate shoreline tends to produce more mixed precipitation than snow...in fact, the average snowfall for the area is just 75.5", which is a touch under twice more than what our typical season is...and we have had more snow than that on a handfull of occasions (most recently for most locations in 2012-13, when we had that one 40" storm and a few others, and for those that didn't, then everyone in CT did in the historic 2010-11 winter). By comparison...an area just to the northeast of there- Valdez, AK, is the snowiest city in the United States, averaging 297.7" of snow a year, 3 times...our all-time record(!!)

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

12/27- STORM WATCH- The joys of Forecasting Winter

Good Tuesday all-

Thursday has gotten more interesting overnight, which is bad news for those who have travel plans...or those who hate snow. We have intense model disagreement, with everything (and I mean everything) still on the table, except for no precipitation. From rain to 2 feet of snow though? There's a clear and distinct path to either possible outcome. I'll discuss below.

What we essentially have going on is two systems trying to merge together into a coastal low off the mid Atlantic coastline. This low appears to be tracking either just barely inside of...or directly over...the 40/70 benchmark. Ordinarily...this is a recipe for a historic snowstorm for Connecticut. The issues we have though are no blocking high to our north to keep the cold air locked in.

This is not necessarily fatal however- we simply have to have the storm be strong enough to create its' own cold air. That, my friends, is where the models are disagreeing.

The GFS and CMC models suggest the storm won't get its' act together until just past the 40/70, and in the Gulf of Maine. This would be a nightmare for that state...but be a chilly rain for us. On the other hand, the Euro(!) and the NAM, feature the storm intensifying just further south...but that's enough to keep it mostly...if not entirely...snow for the state except for the immediate shoreline. In such a scenario, I would call for a massive snowstorm with the potential to see well over a foot of snow....possibly two? In any case, the roof for this one is all-time top 10 range...so that means we really, really, really have to watch this one! For now...know that plans on Thursday and Friday look iffy at best. If the storm system does come together, the heaviest snow would fall Thursday late afternoon into Friday, which would then have to be spent shoveling.

The next name on WFSB's name list is Breanna. Note that this would be the first time since 2012 that two named storms have occurred before the New Year.

Monday, December 26, 2016

12/26- Thursday Issues?

Good Monday all-

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY is up for Hartford & Litchfield Counties beginning at 1 PM today.

Christmas is over- can you believe it? Now as we head into the final week of 2016 we have a few things to keep our eyes on. The big one is Thursday, but we also have to get through some showers tonight and tomorrow as a cold front moves through the region. The freezing rain advisory for northern Connecticut is because temps will be either at or just above freezing, but the ground will be below and thus you have a problem! Highs will be seasonable for much of the week with temperatures almost exclusively in the mid 30s...but tomorrow will be exceptionally warm, and New Year's Day may hit 40 as well. For revelers in Times Square on Saturday, it looks like a very typical night- it should be about 30 degrees at the stroke of midnight with partly to mostly cloudy skies as we ring in 2017.

The major question in the next week is exactly what a storm system will do on Thursday. We have some divergence on computer models. The Euro is forecasting a major snowstorm for all of New England on Thursday- such a scenario could produce double-digit snowfall for most of Connecticut. Right now, however, I have doubts about the extent of the cold air in place and the timing of the transfer of energy from a clipper to a nor'easter. The GFS is a bit too late for anything significant in our area. Right now, I'll take the safer middle road with steady, moderate mixed precipitation for Thursday. If it is all snow...then we have a really big problem (don't panic, but a pure snowstorm could produce upwards of 20"). I will be watching it closely...as I said, it's early...but at least some travel impacts are likely in that timeframe. The next name on the WFSB name list is Breanna, and this has a pretty decent chance of being just that.

Today in weather history- December 26, 2010- Blizzard Adrianne strikes Connecticut, with intense winds and producing over a foot of snow in portions of the region. My house in Wallingford picked up 9", but the wind is what made it memorable as I couldn't see the house across the street from me for much of the event! This storm is also remembered as the beginning of the epic winter of 2010-11...the second snowiest winter ever recorded in Connecticut. Over 60" of snow would fall in the next five weeks!

Note that I will be out of town quite a bit the next few weeks, from January 2-8, and again from January 13-19. I will update when I can but it will almost certainly be spotty in that time period. Of course, if a big storm is likely...this is the place you can come for information!


Friday, December 23, 2016

12/23- No Change to Xmas, Active New Year's?

Happy FRIDAY everyone- and for many, the last day before Christmas Vacation!

Today is going to be fine, and the forecast remains entirely unchanged from yesterday (though I now think that tomorrow's storm will be all rain except in the far northwest hills). Otherwise, it will pour for much of the day but we will dry things out for Sunday, Christmas Day. As we head towards New Year's next weekend though, it does appear as though an active pattern will be developing with storm potentials of some kind on Friday...and New Year's Day (Sunday 1/1/17). I assure you I will be watching it as the time approaches. Any change to that forecast timing could cause issues for the revelers in Times Square!

Today in weather history- December 23, 1989- An arctic snap drops temperatures to record levels across much of the Central USA, with temperatures in New Orleans falling to 11 degrees(!!) and -4 at San Angelo, TX! To add insult to injury, a major storm develops along the southeast coast and when coupled with the major cold snap dropped 13.5" of snow on Cape Hatteras. Ouch. All of these are all time record figures for their area.

Image result for merry christmas

Thursday, December 22, 2016

12/22- A Few Flurries, Messy Xmas Eve?

Good Thursday all-

Well, today will be pretty nice all in all, but we have to get through the morning first. It won't be that hard to do though- just a few scattered flurries and snow showers (or rain showers) will be moving through our state from west to east and I cannot rule out a dusting in areas along and north of I-84. By the afternoon though we should be left with at least partly cloudy skies and temps in the low 40s...we'll take that. Tomorrow looks like an average December day, but then Saturday, Christmas Eve, looks like a bit of a mess with a morning wintry mix changing to rain. Not that pleasant but...it's better than having it on Christmas Day- it appears that we will not have a 3rd straight warm and wet Christmas- this year, it's looking like sunshine with temperatures in the low 40s, which is not that uncommon. Also, as we look into next week, it doesn't appear that we will be dealing with any significant storms until 2017...we'll take this break!

Today in weather history- December 22, 1988- Fort Collins, CO, manages to deal with an extreme wind gust of 123mph- that's category 3 hurricane intensity. The mountain peaks and valleys can certainly help enhance wind, and they certainly did here!

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

12/21- WINTER SOLSTICE- Great Xmas Forecast

Good Wednesday all-

What a beautiful next several days we're going to have (well, at least for late December)...well, except for Christmas Eve (I know, but...hey it could be worse). Other than a scattered flurry or shower tomorrow, we're high and dry for all of the next 3 days (today, tomorrow, and Friday). Saturday is the trouble spot here, as a storm system moves in from the west with a wintry mix in the morning changing to rain in the afternoon. This will be gone before Christmas Day...which looks terrific. Temperatures look to peak in the 40s for the forseeable future...even beyond Christmas as we begin heading towards New Year's, which an early look at suggests it will likely be dry behind a storm system for Friday 12/30.

Today is the Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year.

Image result for happy winter

May your winter be excellent, warm, and filled with hot chocolate and snowmen!

Monday, December 19, 2016

12/19- Watching Thursday...here comes Xmas...

Good Monday all-

Today is going to be a rather chilly and nippy day, but nice overall, and the same can be said for each of the next three days. The only trouble spot in the immediate future is Thursday, where we have to keep our eyes on a potential interaction with a clipper system and a coastal system off to our southeast. If everything comes together...there is a small (<20% chance) of a major snowstorm...but the most likely scenario is some scattered flurries or a light period of snow. As we head into the Christmas weekend...there likely will be another storm nearby the day after Christmas, but we simply have to watch that one as it's far too early for details.

Today in weather history- December 19, 1924- Yellowstone National Park's Riverside Ranger Station drops to -59 degrees, the all-time December record for the United States...that's cold!

Saturday, December 17, 2016

A Snow Surprise- Goodbye to Albie

Well, I expected snow but...I cannot say I expected to be posting about....




So...well...yeah. Essentially, what happened here is a combination of things that prevented the snow from changing to rain until the very end of the storm- I don't think I lost any accumulation at all in Naugatuck. To my shock, I somehow ended up receiving 7" of snow...and well...so did most others. A very small secondary low developed off of Long Island, which allowed, not only the warm front to stay south...but allowed enough of a wind shift to the northeast that the cold air was allowed to remain throughout the morning. The end result was essentially a 5-8" snowfall (congrats to Winsted on 9", which appears to be the jackpot) across pretty much the entire state...and the first named storm of the 2016-17 winter. This comes over a month earlier than the first named storm last year (Jan. 29th's Blizzard Ana). Additionally...Albie is the first named storm to occur during the month of December since 2013's Winter Storm Ashford...that's quite a while as we can have a rather snowy finish to the year sometimes!

In any event, I hope you enjoyed it...because this means that, because we now have a deep snowpack instead of a medium snowpack...it won't all melt tomorrow...and you'll need to shovel it. Sorry!

The next name on the list is Breanna, and I am watching Thursday to see if we could find her there as there is a threat of a nor'easter on that day.


^^^ This is unlikely for now, but the 12z CMC is shown here indicating 10-15" of snow for Thursday night and Friday across northern areas. Ouch.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

12/15- Snow for Saturday

Good Thursday all-

My finals are over, so I'm back! And I have some bad news- the first truly significant snowfall of the season is on the way for Saturday. It will feature snow changing to rain, but, unlike the last time, the temperatures will be much cooler at the beginning, allowing the snow to hang around for a very long time, and I am expecting pretty heavy accumulations. I am expecting roughly 2-5" for central CT, 1-3" southeast, and 4-6" along and north of I-84, including the Naugatuck Valley. These numbers, although they always could change, have higher confidence than normal as we have exceedingly good computer model agreement, and they pass the "is it reasonable" test very easily...so I'll roll with it and enjoy watching it fall.

There are two other major stories for the next couple of days- a rare HIGH WIND WARNING is up for the entire state today and tonight, where we can expect winds to gust as high as 60mph, causing some scattered power outages. Additionally, by tonight, we will have frigid temperatures...though they won't be as bad as we had been expecting- we will likely stay in the positive single digits...but the wind chill will be nasty and a WIND CHILL ADVISORY is up for northern CT- so stay warm tonight and tie down your loose objects!

I will have the latest on Winter Storm Decima (TWC has named the Saturday storm) tomorrow!

Today in weather history- December 15, 1945- Areas just south of Buffalo, NY, pick up 70" of snow thanks to an incredibly strong lake effect snow event...that's taller than most people...imagine trying to dig out of that!

Sunday, December 11, 2016

12/11- Watching Tonight

Good Sunday all-

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for all of Northern CT except for southern Litchfield County...what the heck...that really needs to be included!

In any event, a decent statewide accumulating snow event is on the way for this evening. I think most of us see 1-4", with perhaps a scattered 5" total in the Litchfield Hills north of the Waterbury area. Elevation will be key here...as will just how quickly the warm air is able to filter down to the surface (that's especially key in the difference between ice and rain). As for school impacts...I expect most schools north of the immediate shoreline to delay. I believe that along the shoreline, schools will likely be totally open. That said, in Litchfield County, especially in northern zones, it wouldn't surprise me to see some schools completely close. This will occur in the areas that see 4" instead of 1"...and get a fair amount of icing.

All in all, this isn't the big snowstorm we once feared, but it's still an impactful event. Keep your eyes on the skies today as the flakes get ready to fall and take some extra time in the morning to get where you need to be!

Saturday, December 10, 2016

12/10- STORM WATCH A bit better model agreement- Ice Ice Ice

Good Saturday everyone-

I'm here with the latest information on Winter Storm Caly for tomorrow evening. We're starting to get a bit better model agreement. The Euro has caved to the GFS, so we can begin to discuss totals with a great deal of higher confidence than we did last evening. And here's what we can expect, in terms of snow, ice, and school impacts.


On the immediate shoreline, from North Branford-Ridgefield-Deep River: 1-3" of snow is possible, with a bit of ice but plenty of rain as the morning moves on. I think that delays are likely in this region, but it will be very tough to get closings as the precipitation transitions to just plain rain through the morning hours.

Inland but SOUTH of the Litchfield Hills and northeastern CT, including greater Hartford and the I-91 corridor: 2-4" of snow is likely, with a transition to, potentially, a period of prolonged icing as the surface temperatures slowly rise to above freezing but not until about noon...so this could be a very serious issue. I do expect most schools here to be closed completely, but this is a very fragile forecast as, if it changes to rain more quickly than expected, delays would be the most widespread scenario.

Inland IN THE LITCHFIELD HILLS and along and north of the I-84 corridor (and into the Naugatuck Valley, which tends to hold onto cold air longer than the surrounding areas), including Waterbury, Litchfield and Torrington- 3-6" of snow is possible, with the highest amounts in the far northwestern portions of the state (I'm looking at you, Norfolk!) but still a pretty decent snow event for this part of the state. Given a pretty decent amount of snow (the grass will be totally covered and with the cold air it will stick very willingly...followed by several hours of ice (it will be very tough to get surface temps above freezing here), it is very likely schools will totally close in this region.

As for WestConn...my final exams are Monday...which means this is a critical forecast for me. I do not even know what to think here...as we are going to be right on the very fringe. Danbury should get about 3" of snow followed by a decent amount of ice. I do think that the morning finals will be cancelled but...I have less confidence in the afternoon finals. This will be a brutal call for the president to make...so we'll see what happens!

I know I have many readers of this blog in New Haven- I am officially forecasting a 2-hour delay for you!

Friday, December 9, 2016

12/9- STORM WATCH- Snow or a Mess means Yucky Monday...Cold Also!

Happy Friday everyone!

Well, this will be very interesting this week. The overnight models are coming into a bit better agreement but...still, some noticeably big differences do exist. We're walking a very fine line here but...I will be able to make my first guess with numbers later on in this blog post. That said, the numbers that I show...especially along and south of 84...could go up if the storm more closely follows the CMC/Euro forecasts. I think the models are somewhat overdoing the amount of warm air in the system...especially if it passes weakly to our south. There is certainly an icing risk as well- in fact, it's a high one as the really cold air in place over CT this weekend will be really tough to get rid of! Highs today will only be in the mid-30s, and then the low 30s tomorrow(!!) before we do introduce snow to the forecast for your Monday. Another snow event is possible Tuesday/Wednesday, and still another Fri/Sat...we have an active time ahead!

Alright. Here is my initial forecast.



I am trouble uploading my map this morning. Hopefully this will be resolved by tomorrow (I will post again in the morning). That said, my general thinking *so far* is 1-3" on the shoreline, 3-6" inland between say exit 9 on I-91, Ridgefield, parts of Danbury, and the Connecticut River Valley. Everyone else is in more of a 5-10" range, which includes the northwest and northeast hills and the northern Naugatuck Valley, including Waterbury, as these areas tend to hold onto cold air for longer. This is, essentially, along and north of I-84.

That said, after this is done, the cold air will be very stubborn at the surface and I think a prolonged period of icing is possible. Also, keep the following in mind- a weaker, more southern track would actually increase these 5-10" totals in their coverage- it would stretch nearly to the shoreline in some computer guidance. Also, a more westward track and we're looking at 2-5" or 3-6" everywhere...with more concern about icing. Either way, a nasty and plowable event appears likely!

TWC has named the system Winter Storm Caly. Unless WFSB names the system...I will continue to refer to this one as Caly.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

12/8- STORM WATCH- Significant Snowstorm Monday?

Good Thursday all-

Fun times are ahead in the weather world for me and other meteorologists but maybe not for the majority of people. Models turned the corner last night and now instead of Sunday being a light event...it's now possible that it is our first truly 'major' snowstorm of the 2016-17 winter season. It appears that the clipper system now wants to intensify off the coast and act as a coastal low. All of the models are now showing this scenario, with the Euro being the last holdout to jump on board, which it did last night. In such a scenario...we would expect a decently large amount of snow, accompanied by gusty winds as well out of the northeast. A plausible worst case scenario would be something along the lines of 5-10" of snow with locally up to one foot. This is not the most likely scenario...but it's on the table. Right now, it's really early but if I had to guess...I think I'd say 4-8", which is still a significant event. The Weather Channel has named the system Winter Storm Caly...and it will be interesting towards school impacts Monday. As this is the first storm of the year, it's possible that most schools would be closed, but obviously a LOT remains up in the air with this system. We'll see what happens! Either way, it's not the biggest snowstorm we've had, but it's not the smallest either!

In the meantime, we can expect very cold temperatures- we are going to be hard pressed to get to freezing on Saturday...and snow showers possible from some of those Great Lakes streamers.

More snow is possible at the end of next week, but that is so far out it's not worth more than a brief mention at this time. This is an extremely active pattern to start the winter and it shows no sign of going anywhere before New Year's, so the fun has just begun!

Today in weather history- December 8 has not had any significant weather events worth mentioning in this slot today.

All eyes are on Caly...I will post the latest developments here tomorrow...and throughout the weekend as well. This one is especially important to me as I have two finals on Monday- it looks very iffy to say the least!!

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

12/7- Drying out, Cold Weekend ending with Heavy Snow?

Good Wednesday all-

Oh boy is it going to be getting chilly out there in the very near future! In fact, although today will be nice. Saturday looks AWFUL with highs below freezing. and that's just an appetizer! Some of the next eight days or so look almost historically cold, with especial concern about next Thursday...where is it possible that some of us don't get above 20 all day?!?!?!

The other big concern in the next week is the *potential* of the first really significant snow event Sunday and Monday. Some models are indicating as much as a 5-10" snowfall in the northern half of our state, which would of course really snarl the roads up nicely. Let's watch that closely- I certainly will be as I have a bunch of final exams on Monday...right now, I have my doubts they will be occurring! The first named storm this year will be Albie...it's not out of the realm of possibility this is the one. In any event, the big story next week is clearly the big snowstorm and the cold.


^^ New GFS showing generally five to ten inches of snow for areas along and north of 81. Any colder air and this could extend to the rest of the state very easily.



Take care on the roads this morning- they are very icy and there have been dozens of accidents!

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

12/6- Chilly Today, More Snow

Good Tuesday all-

Well, I got a total of roughly 0.5" of snow yesterday morning, which is very close to what I expected and will gladly accept. Tonight, we get to do it all over again- in fact, tonight's system and yesterday's look remarkably similar and we can expect some snow and mixed precipitation tonight...and we will likely have the morning commute snarled once again with a wintry mix. I am very concerned about some icing tonight as well, and I do once again expect schools from around Meriden north to be delayed...and some areas to the south, particularly in the Naugatuck and CT river valleys, which tend to hold onto the cold air for longer than the areas not in that region...and have it arrive first, which is important tonight, because this will be one of those unusual situations where it is rain first, then changing to snow, which is the reverse of our typical weather! Granted, it won't accumulate much- it will be tough to even get 1" of snow out of this...but the timing is horrid. Highs today will be in the mid 40s...and unbelievably that will be the warmest temperature we get in the next week, with snow or mixed precipitation possible on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday...ouch. It certainly is an active start to winter- the exact opposite of last year!

Today in weather history- December 6, 1970- A windstorm strikes Washington, DC, and the Christmas Tree at the White House falls over!

Monday, December 5, 2016

12/5- Snow to Start the Week

Good Monday all-

Here we go, a widespread accumulating snow for many people today- but not a significant accumulation. That said, the roads are a total mess, and most everyone north of the immediate shoreline and west of I-91 has picked up a 2-hour delay, which is probably the right call as the snow will change to rain around 9 and end completely around 10...so a delay certainly makes sense here. This is very similar to what I expected...so I'll give myself a victory here to move to 1-1 (I consider the foot of snow in the hills about two weeks ago a loss- I totally missed that!) on the young winter season. My thoughts have not changed much whatsoever since yesterday, but the roads are quite a bit messier than I expected they would be so please stay safe out there as you head to work and school- particularly if you have no delay. Thankfully, tomorrow looks significantly better...at least before the evening, when another wintry mix moves in. This one, however, should change to rain much quicker...well, except not in the hills, which may pickup another inch or two and thus see more school delays on Wednesday. Thursday's storm is a miss, so I'll go with scattered flurries, and add a chance of snow somewhere in the Sunday or Monday of next week timeframe...though that is, of course, not unexpected for December.

As for my winter predictions for this year- as what better time is there to give it than on the first statewide accumulation- is that this will be extra snowy with either average to slightly above average temperatures. For Bradley...I think I will go with 70", which is almost twice the average and would put this in the top 10 all time winters...while at Bridgeport, 40" would put this at about the Hartford average...and that should work quite nicely. Let's see how accurate this turns out to be!

Sunday, December 4, 2016

12/4- Update on Tomorrow's Snow Event

Good Sunday all-

I just wanted to provide an update as to the snowfall that is on the way for tonight but especially tomorrow morning during the morning rush hour. Now this won't be a major snowstorm by any means- I think 1-2" is a good guess- but with the heaviest of the snow falling at like 8 this could still be an issue. In fact, I suspect that many schools tomorrow will have a delay tomorrow. Even past that though, the roads will still be a bit slick, so please stand by on the roads. The rest of the week looks interesting as well, with a mix to rain on Wednesday and then a very fragile situation indeed potentially for Thursday- that's the one we have to watch the closest as if everything comes together it could be a significant snowstorm- and we appear to be entering an extremely active pattern in general. It's one that if it lasts the entire winter would probably break records. Of course, this is not overly likely, but it's fun for snow lovers to dream :)

The odds of a delay for areas north of the immediate shoreline are 60%. The odds of one on the immediate shoreline are about 40%. I do not expect any closures tomorrow as the snow will either change to rain or end by the late morning.

Friday, December 2, 2016

12/2- Active Pattern Begins Next Week, but Nice for Now

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE!

Well, it's a very nice day once again today, especially for December, with highs likely reaching the 50s with mostly sunny skies and light winds, so we should be golden for today. We drop the temperatures down by a significant amount tomorrow, however, and we will certainly be stuck in the 40s- likely the middle portion of that range. Sunday looks even cooler, and I would hedge a bet that some of the hill towns are stuck in the 30s, but we will have to see. Some complex setups could give us at least some snow next week, with a risk on three days- Monday (which would just be a few flurries here and there), Tuesday (where a complex storm system could drop several inches if everything comes together in a certain way) and Thursday (when a coastal storm forms just to our south). We certainly will be watching closely!

The odds of 1+" of snow in central CT per day are the following:

Monday- 5%
Tuesday- 25%
Thursday- 30%

Today in weather history- December 2, 1925- A bizarre late season tropical storm strikes western Florida, just south of Tampa Bay, before proceeding across the state and becoming a hurricane strength extratropical cyclone and striking the Outer Banks. 73 people are killed by the system- most of them offshore in ships caught off guard by the unusually late season storm.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

12/1- December Starts Beautiful

Good Thursday all-

Wow, I've been awful at updating lately. My schedule has been a mess but it's clearing up a bit now and I should be back to typical five-day-a-week updating beginning today. In any event, we've got a wonderful day coming up today as the rain finally departs- but boy did we need it- so we can deal with it gladly and move on. We are heading to the mid 50s today- talk about a great start to the month of December! The next several days look dry, and get progressively cooler until we're stuck in the low 40s by Sunday. There is a slight chance for a wintry mix on Monday, but I am more interested in a storm system around the middle of next week, which looks to be primarily rain but it's fairly close...I will keep you posted.

Yesterday...November 30, 2016...marked the end of a very memorable Atlantic hurricane season, which produced 15 named storms...7 hurricanes...and 3 major hurricanes. This is significantly above normal and continues the active hurricane cycle. Notable storms included Hurricane Alex, which formed in January...Hurricane Hermine...which became the first hurricane to hit Florida in eleven years and impact us here in New England as a tropical storm...Hurricane Matthew, the first category five hurricane in nine years and the deadliest hurricane since 2005's Hurricane Stan, which gave us a scare before clobbering Florida and South Carolina...Hurricane Nicole, a category 4 which hit Bermuda...and Hurricane Otto, the southernmost landfalling Hurricane ever recorded in central America.

Image result for happy december

Can you believe we're here in the last month of the year? 31 days until 2017!

Monday, November 28, 2016

11/28- Rainy Week, Active Pattern

Good Monday all-

It may be chilly out there this morning, but we'd expect nothing less in late November, and we are going to be heading to the upper 40s today, which is almost exactly average for this time of year. Sunshine will be the dominant force today, but that will all change as we head into tomorrow. A double barrelled, three-day long rainstorm shall commence in the afternoon hours tomorrow, and it will be pouring at times through tomorrow afternoon...all of Wednesday...and much of Thursday, though some clearing is likely on Thursday afternoon. Each day, temps will be seasonable (except Wednesday, where the placement of a low to our west will cause temperatures to soar into the upper 50s to near 60 in places. Beyond that, however, temperatures drop through the floor...some areas may have a rather difficult time getting out of the 30s on the weekend days, especially Sunday, but no precipitation is in the vicinity. No sign of any significant snow is on the horizon, but that could change in about two weeks, and I will keep you posted right here!

The Atlantic and Pacific are predictably quiet, since the hurricane season ends Thursday, but Hurricane Otto made a landfall on Thanksgiving day in extreme southern Nicaragua, near the Costa Rican border, becoming the southernmost landfall in the history of Central America, killing at least 21 people and doing significant damage in the region.

Today in weather history- November 28, 1921- Worcester, MA...as well as much of our area...is under siege by a monstrous icestorm that leaves over three inches of ice in many locations, doing significant damage and making streets unpassable...even by walking. D'oh!

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

11/23- Thanksgiving Travel Woes

Good Wednesday all-

Well, it's that time of year again, and for the second time in three years, we have trouble for travel on thanksgiving morning- though this won't be nearly as bad as the 2-6" snowfall we picked up in 2014! That said, there will be some issues with icing tomorrow morning, most notably to the north and west of our area, but some impact is certainly likely here in Connecticut with a minor accumulation of snow and ice likely. I wouldn't change any plans based on this- it's low enough that if you are CAREFUL, you should be just fine getting to your destinations during the day tomorrow...though the later you leave, the better the roads will be. Some showers of either rain or snow are possible Friday night...and rain showers Sunday morning will turn to snow showers by the evening.

WFSB has released their winter storm names for this year. Because of the fact that this is a local blog...I tend to use this set of names as opposed to TWC's. For example...I will always refer to the Blizzard of 2013 as Blizzard Charlotte as opposed to Blizzard Nemo. This years list of names is featuring local sports stars.

Albie- For Albie Booth, a college football hall of famer that played for Yale from 1929-1931
Breanna- For Breanna Stewart, UCONN star currently playing in her rookie WNBA season for Seattle
Chris- For Chris Drury, the former captain of the New York Rangers
Diana- For Diana Taurasi, a former UCONN basketball star considered one of the best women's basketball players of all time
Eugene- For Eugene Robinson, former NFL all star and Super Bowl Champion from CT
Frank- For Frank Gifford, a NFL player who won the MVP in 1956 and announcer until 1997
Geno- For Geno Auriemma...we all know who he is.
Hugh- For Hugh Wiley, an olympic horseback rider from the 50s.
Ida Mae- For Ida Mae Martinez, a wrestler from the 50s
Jim- For Jim Calhoun...we all know who he is.
Kemba- For Kemba Walker, who lead the improbable UCONN men's championship team of 2011.
Lindy- For Lindy Remigino, a 1952 gold medalist in track and field
Matt- For Matt Harvey, currently a pitcher for the New York Mets.

Winter Storm Albie does not appear to be on the radar yet, but when it shows up, as we know it will...I'll have all the details!

Have a great thanksgiving and I will see you Monday!


Image result for happy thanksgiving

Monday, November 21, 2016

11/21- I'm dreaming of a Wet Thanksgiving

Good Monday all-

Well, that was interesting yesterday, parts of the far northwest hills of Connecticut picked up one foot of snow, while much of the state saw virtually nothing at all. I am somewhere between these extremes as I picked up a coating, which seems to have been the norm for most towns in the vicinity of Waterbury. That said, I got more in the October system then I did this time.

This week as a whole looks generally chilly and occasionally rainy. Low and behold, naturally, the wettest day of the next seven looks to be thanksgiving day, which looks to be an icy mix in the morning changing to rain in the afternoon. YUCK. Other chances for precipitation lie on Friday evening, which would be in the form of snow, though no significant accumulation is likely by any means, and this afternoon, when I cannot rule out a few more flurries or snow squalls from yesterday's system. As for temps, the mid-40s will be in control for much of the week, with a bit warmer conditions perhaps with the rain on thanksgiving. This is about five degrees below average for this time of year.

The Atlantic has awakened, as Tropical Depression 16 has formed in a very awkward place just north of Panama, and it is forecasted to become a hurricane...and then hit close to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. That's just weird, but hey, there's a surprise or two pretty much every season. The next name on the list is Otto, and this would likely be the last system of the year as hurricane season ends in just over a week. The Pacific remains quiet for now

Today in weather history- November 21, 1798- A harsh winter for Connecticut begins with 12" of snow falling on New Haven. In most areas, the grass would not make another appearance until the beginning of May...doh! Litchfield County is hoping to avoid a repeat of this (spoiler alert- we will)

I will be updating tomorrow and Wednesday, but I will be in Maine Thursday and Friday, so after that, my next post will be Monday morning 11/28/16

Sunday, November 20, 2016

11/20- First snowfall map of 16-17

Good Sunday everyone-

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for Litchfield County. The rest of Connecticut has a WIND ADVISORY.


It's the weekend, but this situation needs to be blogged about as today's snow event looks a bit more significant than it has at any point leading up to this. Here's my current thinking.



As you can see, this is significantly more than I was expecting on Friday, as the system has become surprisingly potent allowing accumulating snow to reach further to the south. I personally live right on a border region (Naugatuck) so I am fascinated to see how much I get. It's entirely possible I can eeek out a couple inches...I hope so!

Thursday, November 17, 2016

11/17- STORM WATCH- Active Pattern Developing, Thanksgiving Nightmare?

Good Thursday all-

One yes one, week to Thanksgiving and this is not the time for the weather to become active but, lo and behold, that's exactly what's going to happen and we are about to be in for a major cold spell that will likely produce some snow. I am closely watching two systems- one for Sunday and another for Thanksgiving Day (ouchy!). The next few days are going to be absolutely incredible though so take time to enjoy them--seriously! Highs will be near or even slightly above 60 degrees with bright sunshine! Sunday's system, however, is going to be a very strong cold front that will do a couple of things. First, it will send temps from the 60s to the 30s, and feature rain eventually mixing with and changing to snow. Flurries will be around Monday, but Tuesday looks good. Clouds increase on Wednesday until...well...

Thursday has the *potential* to feature a major snowstorm from NYC to Maine if everything comes together. I think that the places most likely to get a significant snowstorm are off to our north in the White and Green Mountains, and pretty much all of Maine, but I cannot rule out a significant impact here in Connecticut. As we are a week out, things can and will change, but obviously that's a hugely important forecast and I will keep you informed as the time gets closer.


The tropics remain as they were on Tuesday.

Today in weather history- November 17, 1927- A strong long-track tornado hits Washington, DC, injuring 31 people and striking the Naval Air Station, which recorded a gust to 93mph

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

11/15- A Full Day of Rain...Finally

Good Tuesday all-

What a miserable day this is going to be...well unless you like rain, but most of us should appreciate it! With our rainfall deficit as high as it is, this is extremely helpful, though 1-2" of rain that we expect today won't completely erase it...it will significantly help. Additionally, the pattern appears to be becoming very active for the next several weeks, so we may get a bit more help...but some of that may be in the form of snow. After today, the rest of the week looks dry, with the next chance of precipitation coming on Sunday, and that one could end as some snow, depending on exactly where the precipitation winds up. The first part of Thanksgiving week looks decent, but some models are suggesting the potential for a major snowstorm either on Thanksgiving Day or the days in the immediate vicinity...let's try to avoid that as it would be a travel nightmare!

^^^0z GFS indicating six to twelve inches of snow on Thanksgiving Day. Ouch. Additionally, it is still snowing at the time above, so you can raise the totals another inch or two on this model run.

The Caribbean system discussed yesterday now has a 70% chance of development over the next several days, and the islands near and including Hispanola will be paying very close attention to this one.

Today in weather history- November 15, 1900- The lake effect machine was out in full force for Watertown, NY, which picked up 45" of snow in this single 24 hour period, and a storm total of 49". By comparison, that's nearly ten inches more than the 91 corridor got during Blizzard Charlotte/Nemo in 2013!

Monday, November 14, 2016

11/14- A Heavy Rainstorm Tomorrow, Watching the Weekend

Good Monday all-

Today is going to be absolutely beautiful, with highs in the high 50s/low 60s with bright sunshine...which is beautiful for this time of the year!  Tomorrow, however, appears to be a total washout- thank goodness! We really need the rain, and this will help with 1-2" of rain likely during the day tomorrow as a coastal low passes directly over our head during your Tuesday. The rest of the week looks very good- in fact, exceedingly similar to today, and maybe even a bit warmer for the last part of the week.

I am, however, watching either Sunday or next Monday for the potential of at least some snow falling in Connecticut. This will occur from a very highly complex and bizarre setup...and although I could type several paragraphs on what could happen...it will only confuse you. So just keep in the back of your mind that there is about a 20% chance of a light but noticeable accumulating snow around a week from now.

^^ This is a strange way to get snow, but it would work and needs to be watched

Tropical Storm Tina unexpectedly formed in the Pacific this weekend, but it is already on its' weakening phase. The bigger concern lies in the Atlantic, where Tropical Storm Otto appears to be forming in the central Caribbean and is generally heading for Hispanola. That's the last thing they need as they continue to recover from Hurricane Matthew's devastating strike a bit over a month ago.

Today in weather history- November 14, 1987- A really amazing pattern shift, although not unheard of at all at this highly variable time of year, sends DC from digging out from over a foot of snow three days prior to highs near 70 degrees on this date. That's a snow eating temperature if I ever saw one!

Thursday, November 10, 2016

11/10- Sunny for Ages

Good Thursday all-

Now that we got through the rain from yesterday, today is going to be a beautiful day with highs in the mid to upper 50s and bright sunshine and, frankly, I think we will be having that for five of the next seven days. The bumps in the road look to be Saturday- highs in the mid 40s with wind out of the north with a flurry or two possible in northwest Connecticut- and next Wednesday- when a massive nor'easter threatens to drench New England with several inches of rain. That, of course, is way out there and I will continue to watch that closely for you!

Both the Atlantic and Pacific are quiet for now, but a Pacific basin low does have some chance of development as it moves to the north and in the general direction of the Baja Peninsula.

Today in weather history- November 10, 2002- A massive tornado outbreak- exceedingly unusual for this late in the season- kills 36 people. Of the 75 tornadoes, the most noteworthy was one a mile wide that struck Mossy Grove, TN, which killed 12 of the 36 total people killed on this day.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

11/9- The Donald is President, but How is the Weather?

Good Wednesday all-

And boy, just how tired are we after last night's adventure that, after a stunning turn of events, has allowed Donald Trump to become the 45th president. Wow.

Image result for president trump
^^^ Who would have thought this would happen after trailing in the polls for so long

Well, in any event, mother nature will be dropping tears (I will let you decide if they are of joy or sadness) today in the form of some showers over our area this afternoon as a weak cold front moves in. This will not do much to our temperatures- in fact, I think we're in the mid 50s from now until Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies after today. The real chill comes on Saturday when we end up with highs in the mid 40s with a gusty north wind which will make it feel like highs are in the 20s...yikes. Lastly, to add insult to injury, snow flurries are possible as well, but any precip will be light and no accumulation will occur. Thankfully, we do moderate things quite a bit after that, and will be three to five degrees above average for the early part of next week.

No development is expected in the Atlantic or Pacific anytime soon.

Instead of weather history, today is about American History, so I leave this last thought- it's true that this has been the most divisive campaign in history with seemingly two polar opposite ideologies going head to head. The bottom line is this, though- we are ALL Americans and must try to find a common ground as we go into the future. I wish President-Elect Trump the best of luck in his journey and hope that we can truly have a new era to look forward to in the coming years as he has constantly been discussing.

Monday, November 7, 2016

11/7- Standard Week Ahead for November

Good Monday all-

First off, I sincerely apologize and beg forgiveness for not updating last week. My life was a bit of a mess, but things have certainly resolved themselves and now I can go back to focusing on this :)

Today is going to be a pretty average day for early November, with highs in the low 50s and partly sunny skies...well, who am I kidding? It's going to be like this for most of the next week. The exceptions are tomorrow- which will be a rather warm 63- and Wednesday- which will feature rain in the afternoon. The other bump in the forecast comes on Saturday, which will feature highs struggling to reach 40 (This is nearly fifteen degrees below average) with snow flurries a distinct possibility statewide, but especially in areas along and north of I-84 as the lake effect machine kicks into gear for the first time this winter. As we head into next week, however, the weather looks to become rather active and we begin to really ramp up the rain and snow chances.

There is no development likely in either the Atlantic or Pacific basins- and there are just 24 days remaining in the hurricane season.

Today in weather history- November 7, 1940- The infamous 'Galloping Gertie' bridge in Tacoma, WA collapses in a strong windstorm just four months after opening. Miraculously, nobody is killed, but bridges were constructed with spans that differ in size (as the cause of the collapse was largely linked to the fact that the spans were the same)

No excuses to not vote tomorrow- and if you don't, then you are not allowed to complain about the results!

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

11/1- One week to Election Day...November starts Warm, Turns Chilly

Good Tuesday all-

Well, it's the new month! May November be all you want it to be and more- and remember that Thanksgiving is a paltry three weeks from Thursday! (Yes, 23 days from now...scary!)
Image result for happy november

The month begins with a very interesting array of temperatures. The next three days will be absolutely stunning, with temperatures going as high as ten to fifteen degrees above average- I think most towns get to 70 on Thursday, which is no small feat for early November. Skies will be partly cloudy throughout- and that is very welcome news as well. That said, our next system is an extremely strong cold front for Thursday afternoon, and we can expect some rain with it (though not too much) but it will send temperatures plummeting nearly thirty degrees. By the weekend, I think that most areas do not get out of the 40s, which is about ten degrees below average...so we're really on the coaster (though this in and of itself is not all that unusual for this time of year).

It is worth noting that there are strong signals of a cold and stormy pattern setting up about two weeks from now. As we are getting into the time of year when significant snow events are not unusual in Connecticut...we have to keep our eyes on this.

Both the Atlantic and Pacific are quiet as we begin the last month of the hurricane season.

Today in weather history- November 1- Not much has happened on this day worth noting, and not much is going to happen today so just enjoy your new month!


Monday, October 31, 2016

10/31- A chilly Halloween, analyzing last week's snow event

Good Monday all-

Image result for happy halloween
Wow! If you can believe it, Halloween is here- it feels like just yesterday we were in January and yet here we are. Stay safe out there tonight trick-or-treaters!

Now on to the weather! Today is going to be excellent but cold. We will be a touch below average for today- highs will be in the low to mid 50s for most of CT (the average high is about 58). Additionally, it will be quite breezy- gusts up to 20mph are possible from the due North, making the chill even greater. There is good news though- we are going to steadily rise temperatures each day through Thursday, to the point where there will be highs in the upper 60s!! That is insanely warm- but enjoy it because a very cold front will move through Thursday evening or Friday morning, sending the temps plunging through the floor and returning them to significantly below average (in the 40s) by next weekend. Of the next seven nights, the only one that there is a freeze possible is tonight.

It is worth noting that after next week, there are very strong signs of a very active and snowy pattern developing throughout our region for the last two weeks of November and into December. If this does pan out, it would be the first time we've had a snowy start to the season in quite some time.

Last week's snow overpreformed significantly throughout our area, and BDL recorded 1.5" of snow, making this the third biggest snowstorm in October in recorded history at Hartford. Second place was within reach at 1.7" of snow...but of course the great Winter Storm Alfred on 10/29/11 remains the king of October snows, and likely will for all of our lifetimes.

Both the Atlantic and Pacific basins are quiet.

Today in weather history- Halloween, 1846- In a truly ironic coincidence, the now-infamous Donner Party becomes trapped in the Sierra Nevada Mountains for an entire winter. Snow drifts up to forty feet are recorded, and the party ultimately resorted to cannibalizing their dead to survive. Talk about a creepy fact for a creepy day.

Image result for goodbye october
^^^I cannot believe it is already time to post this.

We vote 8 days from now!

There are 24 days to Thanksgiving

There are 55 days to Christmas

There are 62 days until January 1, 2017

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

10/26- Very cold, snow tomorrow

Good Wednesday all-

I am going to have to keep this short and sweet as I am in a hurry this morning (I have an exam at 9!) but I do want to at least blog today as I ran out of time yesterday. Today we can expect highs in the upper 40s (ouch- that's very nippy for late October!). To add insult to injury, winds will be out of the northwest at 5-10mph and although that's not overly strong, that just makes it feel cooler! Additionally, tomorrow, a major storm system will be impacting us with heavy precipitation, especially overnight tomorrow into Friday. This won't be all snow (thankfully, or it would be over a foot) but we can certainly see a few flakes in western Connecticut tomorrow at the onset of the event. I think this is most likely to occur in Litchfield County, where I cannot even rule out one inch of accumulation. Hey, that works. Friday and Saturday look warmer, but precipitation moves into the forecast as another front moves through Saturday afternoon.

The Atlantic is quiet, and the Pacific has no storms that are threatening to land, despite a beautiful looking category 4 Hurricane Seymour.

Today in weather history- October 26, 1859- New York, NY picks up the earliest snowfall of note on record- 4" fall on the city. Of course, this is exceedingly impressive for them (it's tough for us to do that to but the 10/29 storm of 2011 is still in our minds) Seeing as the dates are only three days apart, the pattern was likely exceedingly similar.

Note that Middletown Public Schools are closed today due to a water main break...why couldn't this have ever happened to my school? Regardless, enjoy the day off!

Monday, October 24, 2016

10/24- A Nippy, Nippy Week

Good Monday all-

It's cold out there...and it's going to stay that way for much of the upcoming week. In fact, it looks like 60s will be non-existent for the next 7 days. The highest we will get is 59...and that may be generous. In fact, for tomorrow and Wednesday, I really doubt that we hit 50, which is very rare for this time of year. Freezing temperatures are certain the next few nights, which will end the growing season for once and for all, so pick those vegetables and call it a year. For sky conditions, we had rain overnight last night, and we're going to be golden with sunshine for tomorrow and Wednesday. For Thursday afternoon though, there are some pretty alarming signs...


^^^ 06z GFS showing 2 to 4 inches of snow Thursday afternoon

One of our models, the GFS, is currently proposing a significant (for October) snow event for areas west of I-91, with as much as four inches of snow in parts of the state before changing to rain. To make matters worse, the timing is almost directly during the Thursday afternoon commute. This would be a very, very messy situation and bears watching- especially since all the leaves remain on the trees. Make no mistake- this is not anything near 10/29/11, but would be a pretty big inconvenience...I promise I will be watching that for you. For now, I do believe some snow is likely Thursday afternoon.

The Atlantic is quiet, and Pacific Tropical Storm Seymour is not expected to pose any significant threat to land as it harmlessly swirls away in no man's land.

Today in weather history- October 24- Very little of note has happened on this date, since I already discussed Hurricane Wilma, which crossed south Florida on this date in 2005- this remains the last major hurricane to landfall in the US as Matthew came extremely close to, but not quite over, the Florida shoreline.







Friday, October 21, 2016

10/21- Rain

Happy Friday everyone!

Today is going to be a miserable wet day, although exactly how much remains to be seen. It's a torrential downpour right now in Naugatuck, and I am honestly kind of surprised, though it is wonderful as we really need the rain! That said, tomorrow night could be interesting as snow is possible in the higher elevations as the storm departs to our north. Temperatures will be plummeting as well- highs will only be in the 50s for both tomorrow and Sunday before we get a touch warmer for Monday...and then have our coldest stretch of the season thus far Tuesday and Wednesday- some towns will probably not touch 50 on those days, especially in the Litchfield hills. Some showers or flurries are possible Tuesday night as well!

The Atlantic is quiet, but two systems in the Pacific have some chance of development over the weekend.

Today in weather history- October 21, 1988- Hurricane Joan makes a final landfall in Nicaragua as a category 3 storm, killing 200 people and doing $1.5 billion (1988USD) in damage. The storm took a very odd path- practically due west from the southern Antillies, never moving one degree above or below 12 degrees latitude.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

10/19- Still Warm

Good Wednesday all-

Oh boy, more record breaking temperatures today! Highs will be in the lower 80s once again if you can believe it, which will feel unbelievable for this time of year- is it really October? This will be accompanied by decreasing cloudiness through the day today however...rain will become likely throughout the region tomorrow as a cold front moves through and then that low pressure I was talking about will arrive for Friday. We are still going to have to wait and see what is going to happen with its' interaction with soon to be Tropical or Subtropical Storm Otto spinning off the southeast coast. Either way...we will get at least showers Friday and the potential of something more if the interaction between the two systems is favorable- we really, really need the rain! By the weekend, we're looking at far colder weather, and unseasonably cool temperatures will be here for Saturday and Sunday.

Other than the system described above, both the Atlantic and Pacific basins are quiet.

Today in weather history- October 19, 1844- A tremendous storm pummels the lower Great Lakes with hurricane force wind sending water from the Great Lakes into Buffalo, drowning as many as 200 people in the area. An unusual event to be sure...

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

10/18- Record Breaker

Good Tuesday all-

Today and tomorrow are going to feature record breaking warmth with highs in the low 80s! That's really remarkable for this late in October as we head into the time of year where it wouldn't be completely shocking to see the first flakes in Connecticut- in fact, one year ago today, exactly that happened- the first flurries of 2015-16 fell on this date last year for most. The weather could not be more different. That said, unfortunately, this cannot last, and after tomorrow we likely won't see 80s again until at least April so enjoy it while it lasts- this weekend many towns will have a tough time getting out of the 50s and it will be windy to boot...ouch. As for precipitation...showers are certainly possible Thursday with a cold front, and Friday as well depending on how a couple of lows interact (one of which will probably be Tropical Storm Otto) near or over our region. Don't worry- this won't be a tropical storm or anything- but it could enhance the moisture a bit as we head for the weekend.

Other than soon-to-be Otto, the Atlantic and Pacific are both quiet today.

Today in weather history- October 18, 2005- Tropical Storm Wilma, the record-tying 21st named storm of 2005, forms in the south-central Caribbean. Wilma would rapidly intensify over the next several days and eventually become the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, packing 185mph winds and pressure of 882mb...yikes. Eventually taking a path across Florida at category 3 intensity, Wilma remains the most recent major hurricane to make a US landfall (Matthew missed doing so by about 40 miles)


Thursday, October 13, 2016

10/13- Unfortunate History for Bermuda, Quiet for Us

Good Thursday all-

First things first- we have to pray for Bermuda today as they are suddenly staring down the barrel into a category 4 hurricane after Nicole unexpectedly rapidly intensified overnight. A category four has never hit Bermuda in recorded history...so this is a really, really nasty situation for them- the nightmare scenario really. It would be genuinely tough to have a worse storm for them if you tried.


^^Category 4 Hurricane Nicole heading directly for Bermuda. It's current motion would take it almost perfectly over the island


On a more pleasant note, we can expect very nice conditions here in Connecticut for the next week. There are two chances for rain- the first comes later tonight as a front moves through but it will be limited indeed. The better chance is Monday, which looks quite damp at the moment. As for temperatures...we have high 60s to low 70s today, lower 60s tomorrow and Saturday, mid 60s Sunday, and then 70s early next week. These numbers are slightly above the average of 65 for this time of year for the most part.

Aside from the catastrophe developing for Bermuda, both the Atlantic and Pacific are quiet. The next name on the Atlantic list is Otto.

Weather history is being made today in Bermuda, which will be much more important than anything that happened on past October 13ths.

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

10/12- Clear and Cool Reigns

Good Wednesday all-

Wow, there really is nothing to say here. Seriously- temperatures will be in the mid-60s, with partly sunny skies today...tomorrow...and for the next five days. The only bumps in the road within the next week are some rain showers both Monday and Tuesday next week...and of course, both are iffy this far out. There really is not much rain in the forecast and we desperately need it- we are currently running over ten inches below average for the year so far.

Category 2 Hurricane Nicole is going to hit Bermuda tomorrow, and likely be a very, very severe storm for them- we need to keep them in our thoughts in the next few days. It could be a rare direct hit on the tiny island- with a serious storm surge as well. Yikes...

The Pacific is quiet at this time.

Today in weather history- October 12, 1962- The strongest storm on record for the region clobbers the Pacific northwest with hurricane force winds (gusts to well over 100mph!) and intense rainfall, Countless trees fall, and 48 people are killed by the storm with over $200 million (1962USD) in damage is recorded. Such a storm, although rare, is certainly not out of the realm of possibility for the region...and likely will happen once a century or so.

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

10/11- Cold

Good Tuesday all-

Well, it's exceptionally chilly out there, but my house in Naugatuck at 33 appears to be the cool spot, but still it's very nippy out there. I hope those plants were covered as frost has been widespread this morning. In fact, I'd suspect that you can get maybe another week out of your garden before we get to the point where the weather becomes simply unsustainable. Otherwise...we can expect no precipitation in the next week, with highs consistently in the mid to occasionally upper 60s. Let's hope we can get rain soon though- we desperately need it!

Tropical Storm Nicole is going to impact Bermuda as a hurricane in a couple of days, and the island is under a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch- the center of the storm could hit the island tomorrow as a category 1 hurricane. Otherwise, the basin is quiet for now, although models hint at a more active pattern in about a week.

The Pacific is quiet at this time, though two systems have some development risk without posing a threat to land in the near future.

Today in weather history- October 11- Well, nothing has really happened on this day...so just enjoy your day!

Monday, October 10, 2016

10/10- Where's the Rain?

Good Monday all-

Happy Columbus Day!

Well, this blog post will be extremely short and easy to write, as there are no significant weather systems coming through our region for the next ten days. That's really tough to do, and we do not need that to happen now as we are still in a significant drought (although the big time rain yesterday certainly helped!). That was a combination of Matthew coming a bit further north than expected and an excellent job by the front to tap into the tropical moisture. We're left with partly sunny conditions and highs in the 60s, with lows generally in the high 30s or low 40s. These temperatures are very near the average for this time of year. Be careful with your plants tonight though...we're heading down to the low to mid 30s, and it wouldn't surprise me if tonight was the killer freeze in the higher elevations of Litchfield County...so cover them up and get ready for a rather nippy evening.

Also, keep Bermuda in your thoughts throughout this week as they look likely to take a direct hit from what will be Hurricane Nicole.

Today in weather history- October 10, 1804- Goshen, CT- located in far northwest Litchfield county, manages to pick up a foot of snow from an extremely powerful coastal system that dropped even higher amounts in northern New England- including three feet on top of the Green Mountains.

Friday, October 7, 2016

10/7- Ridiculous Forecast for Matthew

Happy Friday everyone-

Hurricane Matthew is paralleling the Florida coast this morning, and is rapidly approaching Cape Canaveral with winds near 120mph, a major hurricane. The eye may stay just offshore, but it's going to be extremely, extremely close. That said, it's still not at all a good situation for the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, and thoughts continue to go out to them.

As for us, the weather looks great except for a cold front that might have its' precip enhanced a bit by Matthew, but certainly not anything like the storm would have been if it had paid SNE a visit. In the end, we dodged a bullet at the expense of the southeast. Otherwise, highs will be in the upper 60s/low 70s with partly sunny conditions for almost the entirety of the next week.

Weather history is being made today, so please keep those in the path of Matthew in your thoughts this weekend. If I see any noteworthy changes to the forecast, then I will let you know!


Thursday, October 6, 2016

10/6- Worst Possible Hurricane for Florida?

Good Thursday all-

Well, we have boring weather here for the next several days- my forecast is exactly the same as it was yesterday. Our thoughts go out to Florida today, and as many of us have relatives that live down there, here's a closer look

Hurricane Matthew is heading for South Florida, where it looks like one of the top 5 hurricanes to ever achieve US landfall is going to be striking tonight and tomorrow. Winds are forecasted to be 145, which is awfully near category 5 intensity. They can expect some extreme winds, surge, and we really, really have to keep them in our thoughts. This could well be the strongest hurricane to hit land since 1992's Hurricane Andrew.

Elsewhere, Nicole is nearly a hurricane, and should be watched as it begins to do what I like to call tropical meteorologists bane of existence- the Fujiwara effect, which causes two nearby hurricanes to spin around each other counter clockwise, potentially reintroducing south Florida to Matthew around Monday.

Unfortunately, from a meteorological standpoint, it's genuinely difficult to think of a worse scenario for the east coast of Florida. An extreme hurricane moving exactly parallel to the east coast of Florida has been my nightmare scenario for them for a while, as the surge will be extreme. Please contact your friends and family down there- they have never experienced anything like this one.

Today in weather history- October 6, 2016- Hurricane Matthew will begin its' approach to Florida, and this is a truly historic event, one that will live for a generation for Florida. Matthew will soon be held in the great annals of Florida hurricane history, right up there with Charley, Ivan, Andrew, etc.

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

10/5- ALL CLEAR ON MATTHEW- HAIL KING EURO- Nightmare scenario for Florida though...Loop de loop?

Good Wednesday all-

Well, the track yesterday seemed to get better and better for us with each model run. From the morning...when the models agreed on an intense hurricane for Connecticut...to now...where the models show a loop de loop near Florida. The jet stream is just too flat for a move up to our area, and I am comfortable sounding the all clear for this weekend- although it will still be absolutely pouring on Sunday as a strong cold front moves through and we look to be well below average for the foreseeable future. In fact, that air mass is chilly enough that it may somewhere down the line allow the first flakes of 2016-17 to fly, but that still is way out there.

As for Matthew, it's genuinely difficult to predict a worse scenario for Florida. The GFS is particularly weird but entirely possible, where it does basically parallels Florida moving north...stops...and then does the same thing in the reverse direction. A good path example would be Jeanne 2004-


^^^The path of 2004's Hurricane Jeanne. Matthew's loop would be further to the west and closer to Florida.

There is a very real chance that Matthew makes landfall in the southeast as a major hurricane. If it does so on Friday...it would end a 4001 day stretch without a major hurricane landfalling in the US- the last one was Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

As for us, expect a few beautiful days here, but a total washout is likely for Sunday due to that cold front that has been discussed earlier. Until then, you can rest comfortably knowing that Matthew has now got about a 5% chance of hitting us...so I can drop the severe storm watch.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Nicole unexpectedly formed yesterday but the only land area threatened by this system is Bermuda. Another tropical wave will try to develop as it traverses the Caribbean, but it will have a tough road ahead of it as Matthew just churned the waters up. In any event, the next name on the list is Otto.

Today in weather history- October 5, 1638- For the second time in four years, a large hurricane strikes New England. Although not as strong as the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 (the strongest in New England since European colonization), countless trees are still blown down and severe damage is reported.

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

10/4- SEVERE STORM WATCH- Matthew Threat Increasing

Good Tuesday all-

Well, I've said from the beginning that today would be the day that we start seeing a bit more model consensus, and sure enough we are, and that is not necessarily a good thing as the models trended way, way west yesterday and it now looks like we are flirting with the worst possible solution, not just for us in SNE, but the entire eastern seaboard. A high pressure now appears that it may block the out to sea solution, and if it does there really is no way out. Additionally...if the jet stream has a nice size dip, the storm will be forced north and straight into southern New England...and this solution appears rather likely at the moment- the threat has certainly increased dramatically since yesterday morning, the last time I blogged. My thoughts are that we are going to be dealing with a significant hurricane in Connecticut around Sunday. Now we have to deal with the question of "how bad will it be". That depends on the exact track when it gets up here, which, frankly, will not be known for quite some time more. Although a direct landfall is certainly not the most likely solution at the moment...it still has a double-digit percent chance of occurring (I'd put it at about 1 in 4, which is similar to what the GFS ensembles suggest). The bottom line though is that it doesn't matter- if the storm is anywhere between Manhattan and Cape Cod we would be dealing with a nasty solution indeed, and I think that this is now a threat of near or greater than 50%. The out to sea solution today remains on the table, but it appears significantly less likely than the impact scenario. This is easily the biggest threat since Hurricane Sandy for New England, and we have many questions that still need to be answered in the coming days.

In the meantime, Matthew currently has 145mph wind and is approaching landfall in Haiti...which is a complete nightmare. This will be easily their worst hurricane in half a century or more, and my thoughts go out to them, as well as people in the Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern US coastline between Miami and the Outer Banks, who appear to have no escape route at all in getting the storm to spare them significant trouble.

Today's weather will be partly cloudy with highs in the 60s, with partly sunny skies the rest of the week with highs in the 70s until Matthew strikes on Sunday.

Hurricane Matthew

Hurricane Matthew

^^^Models coming into agreement on a high impact storm for Connecticut

Monday, October 3, 2016

10/3- SEVERE STORM WATCH- Stormy Today, Watching Mattew

Good Monday all-

Well, here we go- a very long week of tracking the weather is here as we have to watch Matthew very closely. For the last 24 hours, the trend has been for a lesser impact here in New England, but there are still plenty of models that are trying to bring the storm either very close to or into Connecticut over the weekend. We should have a better idea around Wednesday, but until then we'll be waiting and watching...

As for today, temperatures will be nice but that's about all- rain is likely today on and off as the cutoff low finally departs our region to the east. Beyond that, we're going to be partly cloudy with highs in the high 60s and low 70s for the rest of the week with no chance of precipitation until our close encounter of the Matthew kind later in the weekend (it looks like most impacts would be felt on Sunday if he pays us a visit).

All in all...keep an eye out today and enjoy the next several days...but have your hurricane plans ready. My general discussion from yesterday is still valid, but not the model runs- I would avoid looking at those- I'll have more updates through the week.

Other than Matthew, no Atlantic development is likely. Additionally, for the first time in a very very long time, the Pacific is completely quiet.

Today in weather history- October 3, 1841- Middletown, CT somehow manages to receive 18" of snow thanks to an extremely powerful hurricane or nor'easter moving off shore to the east...yes it is extremely, extremely tough to get so much stuff so early in the year but...it's possible.

Sunday, October 2, 2016

SEVERE STORM WATCH- Not Irene or Sandy, Matthew could be new CT hurricane king

Good Sunday all-

Oh boy did the models trend not in our favor the last 24 hours. The Euro came way west at 12z yesterday, which raised my eyebrows, but didn't really mean all that much as it was still out to sea, while the GFS continued to paint a dire scenario for CT. Overnight, the GFS jogged east out to sea, which led one to think that it would be a miss but...the Euro then came in with the earlier GFS solutions. Ugh- complex- but now, and this is brand new, the GFS that came out moments ago is the furthest west run it has had ever, with a direct landfall in Bridgeport or so as a very high end category 2 or low end category 3 storm. Such a scenario would be worse than any storm since the legendary Long Island Express of 1938...and possibly rivaling that in intensity. A truly historic event.


^^ 06z GFS showing a category 2/3 hurricane in Bridgeport

now for the Euro



^^12z Euro way out to sea



^^^Newest Euro. Obviously, this is much closer and is a mid-range cat 3 in that location...ouch.

This is the big one folks. it's by far the biggest threat since Sandy, and possibly even longer. There is a clear path that could make this the new king of New England hurricanes, potentially even dethroning 1938. Please keep an extremely close eye on this as we head through the week. Check your hurricane plans and prepare for a storm the likes of which we have NEVER been threatened with before at this close (6 days out now) range.

We are coming closer to locking down the track. By Tuesday we should have a pretty good idea. You know how much I think storms are easy to describe but...I truly cannot do so. I've always known it was possible, but a once in 250 year event is not something you ever prepare to forecast.

Again, this is a threat to the extent that we have never truly had before. Keep eyes on both my blog, the NHC website, and other media sources. Get the hurricane plans out, buy flashlights, generators, etc. and prepare to be without power for an extended period. It's going to be very tough to dodge this one.

Thankfully, we still have a week to prepare and things can still change, but it's getting less likely by the minute.

I will update again with the evening model runs tonight

Saturday, October 1, 2016

SEVERE STORM WATCH- Matthew POTENTIALLY a historic storm for entire east coast

Good Saturday all-

Oh boy, things are escalating big time. It's a battle of the computer models to be sure, but there are a few things we know for sure.

1- Matthew became a CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE overnight, the first one recorded in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

2- It will be moving SLOWLY west and then north, eventually striking Jamaica and eastern Cuba, entering the Bahamas.

3- We have a serious battle of the models going on. The GFS, which has a nightmare scenario for the entire east coast, where the system stalls in the Bahamas, becomes a high end cat 5 just east of Florida, then gets captured by a front which sends it flying up the coast and strikes Connecticut directly as the strongest hurricane since 1635...yeah NOT good. The Euro, meanwhile, turns it more to the east and flies it out to sea, while the CMC is in between both options with a historically strong hurricane for central Maine.

4- If, and needless to say this is a big if, this would be worse than both Irene and Sandy, and Gloria, and be only able to be compared to the Great Hurricane of '38. This is a serious, serious risk folks, and we need to pay very, very close attention to this one. Keep your fingers crossed.

5- For those of you wondering, the threat is currently larger than it was at any point last year from Hurricane Joaquin.

Image result for goodbye september

Image result for goodbye september


Thursday, September 29, 2016

9/29- Showery Weekend

Good Thursday all-

Well, here comes the rain as we are entering an extremely wet pattern. My opinion is almost exactly the same as what it was yesterday- and that's rather bad news for places like the Berlin Fair and other activities that are going on through this weekend. It's one of those times where you just want to roll over and go back to sleep- rain is likely for much of the next four days as what we call a "cutoff" low (which describes an old and weak, but extremely slow moving low) will be plaguing us by sitting near Tennessee and spinning showers up from the south as time goes on. As for temperatures...we'll be in the mid to upper 60s for most of the forecast window.

I am still watching Tropical Storm Matthew, which was officially named yesterday morning in the Antilles. It's on a path that will impact Jamaica and Cuba, before moving into the Bahamas on a northward trajectory. If that gets your eyebrows raised, it should...that puts SNE in a vulnerable position indeed...so we need to watch closely. If it does decide to jog up the east coast, we could experience hurricane conditions a week from today or so.

Tropical Storm Matthew
^^ When computer models look like this, your eyebrows are raised.

Even more so when you look at the ensembles...

Tropical Storm Matthew
^^The GFS ensembles showing several members with a direct hit to Connecticut or the mid-Atlantic states.

This still is quite a ways out, but it is becoming more serious very quickly and, if trends continue, I will issue a severe storm watch tomorrow.

Today in weather history- September 29, 1959- Colorado Springs, CO picks up a whopping 28" of snow from a storm. This is extremely unusual for this early in the season, but it's far from unheard of- the town is situated at a very high elevation in the Rocky Mountains and averages 41", which is about the same as Connecticut, but it is more spread out over the season- the stormiest times of the year in the Rockies are late September to early November, and mid-March to late April.

On a happier note, congratulations to Red Sox Nation and all of those who have supported them throughout the season. It may be the most awkward way to clinch ever (a walk off grand slam, really?) but nevertheless it shows just how far you guys have come over the last year. Go celebrate!

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

9/28- Days and Days of Rain

Good Wednesday all-

Well, here we go...a cutoff low is moving from north to south out of the great lakes today and is going to basically sit and spin showers into our area from today until, I don't know- next Monday? OUCH. We do need the rain though and certainly will make up ground on that really nasty drought we have been going through since the beginning portion of the year. That said, it won't be raining all the time by any means- I don't think today will be that wet at all, but Friday should be rather moist, but otherwise I think we should just go with scattered showers and temperatures in the high 60s from now until about next Monday.

Beyond that, all eyes on the entire eastern seaboard will turn to what is developing into a dangerous situation in what will be Hurricane Matthew. Someone along the east coast is going to be staring down the barrel of a major hurricane next week as it moves north out of the Caribbean. Models suggest this could be close to New England about nine days from now. Obviously that's way out there and things will change, but it's worth keeping our eyes on as the days roll by and we head for the weekend.

Today in weather history- September 28, 1836- Hamilton, NY receives 4" of snow, and Ashby, MA pick up 2". This is unusually early, obviously, but it has certainly happened sooner in New England, especially in the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

9/27- Wet, Serious tropical issues?

Good Tuesday all-

Well, this week is not going to be pretty whatsoever as we have a number of issues to talk about. The rain from this morning will be ending as the cold front pushes through to our east, but the temperatures will not be greatly impacted. I think we can eek out a partly cloudy day this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s but...enjoy it, because we won't see 70 again until Sunday! Tomorrow looks to feature mostly cloudy conditions, and then Thursday and Friday and possibly beyond look absolutely miserable with highs in the low to mid 60s, completely overcast conditions, and periods of rain (which we desperately need- most of CT is in a severe drought). The timing of this system that will stall over us is very important to the future track of what will be Hurricane Matthew (and potentially Major Hurricane Matthew) as it moves north out of the Caribbean. Models are trying to bring this dangerously close to New England by the middle of next week. Naturally, it's way out there and things can and will change, but keep your eyes on it as the basic ingredients are in place.

Other than soon-to-be Matthew, the Atlantic is quiet. Tropical Depression 19-E formed just barely east of the east/central Pacific dividing mark, but has entered the central Pacific basin. However, because it formed in the East Pacific, I am relatively confident that once it gets a name it will be from the East Pacific names, the next of which is Seymour, but it doesn't really matter as it poses no threat to land. A Tropical Storm is located southeast of Hawaii at the moment, but it will not impact them.

Today in weather history- September 27, 1987- Mt. Washington has one of those days that makes you shake your head. The base of the mountain enjoys mostly sunny skies with temps in the 70s, while the peak receives 5" of snow, 100mph winds, and 13 degree temperatures. Talk about contrast!