Wednesday, December 31, 2014

12/31- Say Goodbye to 2014 with cold

Good Wednesday all

Well, the revelers in Times Square tonight are going to be shivering in their boots. It's going to be cold tonight, as in the teens cold. Furthermore, most areas today are not going to reach the freezing point, and highs will likely be stuck in the 20s for the majority of, if not the entirety of, our area. The storm Saturday and Sunday looks to be complicated indeed, with a burst of heavy accumulating snow at the start (and I mean really heavy, there could be as much as half a foot of snow inland), followed by a transition to .1-.25" of ice, then 1-2" of rain, and the snow will be all gone by morning in most areas except for maybe a dusting in places). YUCK!!! Also, a new storm watch may be required for early next week (Tuesday) because a clipper system will move through...but the problem is that with temps as cold as they will be ( a fresh shot of cold moves in after the storm Sunday), it'll be extremely hard to get that one to be anything except all snow...and clippers often intensify off the coast if the water temperature is warm enough (which it is easily- the ocean is really warm right now)...

Anyway, instead of taking a look at history today, I think it's fitting to reminisce about the year it was in weather.

January will be a month that I always remember for the bitter cold. Last winter, it seemed like -1 was pretty mild...and at one point my house in Wallingford got to -9, which is about the coldest I've ever seen it. Additionally, Winter Storms Barbara and Chester brought several inches of snow to the area, which was extremely odd considering how there was so much cold air, the snow was truly entertaining to watch fall as fluff

February- This month will mostly be remembered for Winter Storms Derby & Easton, as well as the month that I started this blog in. Derby was a heavy dumper on the front end, with as much as a foot falling in Fairfield County. Easton was an overpreformer, since the storm was expected to change to rain but never did, remaining all snow and thus exceeded the predicted snowfall for the region, with pockets receiving as much as 15"

March was relatively snow-free, but the final day of the month featured a snowfall of 4" in a narrow band along I-91, with as much as 4" falling in a line from Meriden-Hamden-Wallingford-New Haven, making the commute an absolute nightmare.

April was a relatively mundane month except for a snowfall in the middle of the month which was 2" or so around the 15th, a wake-up call that should be remembered- snow has fallen historically in Connecticut as late as May 12, 1977

The summer months were very uninteresting in the weather world. There was only one big severe day, but it hit big by spawning an EF-1 tornado in Wolcott, which passed through the high school and caused significant damage to the sports field. Additionally, we had a very close call from Hurricane Arthur, which passed over the 40-70 benchmark, and then watched as Hurricane Gonzalo crushed Bermuda as a category 3, their worst storm since 2003's Hurricane Fabian.

November this year will be remembered for the cold weather, as well as the pre-Thanksgiving Winter Storm Ariana, which dropped as much as a foot of snow in Litchfield County, but vastly underpreformed in other parts of the state.

December was mild and snow-free, with just 0.7" of snow in the month, which is way below normal (obviously). The big story this month was the Christmas Eve rainstorm that ruined any hope of a White Christmas pretty much anywhere on the east coast.

And now, should auld acquaintance be forgot and never brought to mind? Should auld acquaintance be forgot and days of Auld Lang Syne!

I wish you the very best New Year's, and wish everyone to have a fantastic time revelling tonight. See you next year, AKA tomorrow morning :)







Tuesday, December 30, 2014

12/30- Cold for a while, then ice!

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be quite similar to tomorrow in that both days are going to be clear...but very, very cold I'm afraid. Today will be slightly better I think as we will likely at least reach the freezing mark, whereas tomorrow we might not only not get there, but most spots will be hard pressed to get out of the twenties. Lows both nights will be in the low to mid teens, so the revelers in Times Square tomorrow night better bundle up- it will be far from comfortable!! Once we get through New Year's, the attention shifts to the weekend storm.


The STORM WATCH for SNOW AND ICING is from 5 PM Saturday to 11 AM Sunday. In a rather interesting turn of events, the Euro and GFS flip-flopped last night, with the GFS now showing a chilly solution and the Euro in the Lakes. Obviously, we'll continue to see this for several more days as the models try to hone in on a solution, though I'll target New Year's Day (Thursday) for my final forecast on this thing. For now, expect a moderate icing or snow event on Saturday night as the cold air will likely be locked in place long enough to cause trouble.

Today in weather history- December 30, 2003- Las Vegas, Nevada receives 1-4" of snow as a low moves through the region, the first time in five years Las Vegas picked up the flakes. Why did I choose this event today? Because this event will be repeated tomorrow, and that region is now under a Winter Storm Warning!

Monday, December 29, 2014

12/29- An early-year nor'easter= fun weather week!

Good Monday all-

Well, here we go. The week of New Year's is finally here, and I'll wish everyone the very best in 2015 a few days early here. Now, on to the week's weather. The work week's weather is going to be defined by one word- cold and colder. Very little precipiation is likely this week. Let's take a look...

Today and tomorrow- Sunny and cold, highs in the low 40s

New Year's Eve- Scattered flurries as a reinforcing cold front moves through. No accumulation, highs in the mid 30s.

The Ball Drop (Manhattan's weather)- Clear skies and temps in the high teens or low 20s. BURR!!

Thursday and Friday- Sunny, highs of around 37.

Saturday, Sunday, Monday- The potential exists of a major snowstorm, and I am watching it closely. There is equal chances of a 50 degree rainstorm, and a 20 degree whiteout snowstorm for everyone in Connecticut. For now, I believe the snow solution is a bit more likely...but we'll see what it is. If the storm comes, there could be very large snow accumulations.

As you can see, the big weather story this week is going to be determining exactly what we'll get next weekend, and exactly when it comes. A storm of some kind is very likely and has been modeled for several days, but only recently has there been any chance of snow. In meteorology, there's a saying "the trend is your friend", and it's been trending towards snow. Does that mean it'll happen? Of course not...but it does, perhaps, slightly tilt the odds in that direction.

Today in weather history- December 29, 2004- Tonsontsengal, Mongolia, records a barometric pressure of 32.25" Mercury, or for those non-weather geeks, 1092 mb, the highest in recorded history. (Avg pressure is roughly 1012 mb)

Sunday, December 28, 2014

MAJOR CHANGE TO FORECAST

Well, I don't ordinarily do this, but there has been a massive change to next weekend's storm.

I'm afraid to say that out of absolutely nowhere today, and I mean nowhere, the European model shifted some 250-300 miles EAST from the Great Lakes...which is near the 40/70 benchmark...which is a big snowstorm for everyone in Connecticut. The GFS came in 150 miles further east, putting the storm center over central New York. Needless to say, such a massive shift is raising my eyebrows more than a fair bit, since the Euro almost never does such a drastic single model swing. I'm truly stunned by this. Thus, the storm watch for next Saturday/Sunday changes from being a storm watch for heavy rain to a storm watch for heavy snow or heavy rain. There is around a 50/50 chance now with the model trend of a significant storm of some kind...we just don't know what kind. I'm still reeling from this, and I want to see some more consistency before I bite into the apple completely. Just know that snow is definitely back on the table for next weekend...and I would give as much as a 30% chance for several inches at the present time.

The trend is snow-lovers friend, at the moment. Let's just see how this plays out shall we?

Really brief update

Alright, the STORM WATCH update for today is quite simple- see yesterday's post, as I won't be repetitive and type the exact same thing again. No change has occurred, so I'll simply wish all of you a very pleasant Sunday.

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Brief Update

Alright, let's update the storm watch for next weekend.

Wave good-bye to the snow risk that it presented. Literally, it looks completely identical to the storm we had on Christmas Eve, as in 2-3" of rain and very strong wind. It's not that there isn't cold air around, but the track of the low is absolutely killing our snow chances so far this winter. Hopefully that changes, or snow lovers will be suffering a great deal this year. As it stands, there's going to be temps in the high 50s again with torrential rain next Saturday so, although it isn't exactly going to be pleasant, it'll be far less impactful than a giant snowstorm...so there's always that.

Snow lovers, however, should take solace in the fact that we are barely a week into winter. I promise there will be at least one big snowstorm this year, there always is. You just will have to wait a bit longer.

Talk to you tomorrow with more on the storm watch, which will remain due to the fact there certainly is a greater than 25% chance of 2+" of rain. In fact, it's probably darn near 50% at the moment.

Friday, December 26, 2014

12/26- Sunday's threat returns...

Good Friday all-

First, I hope everyone had a fantastic Christmas and got what they asked for! Anyway, today's weather is going to be fantastic, as will tomorrow's. In a very surprising development last night, however, the Sunday storm has made a comeback...as it suddenly shifted a fair amount north, enough to make me believe there is now about a 20% chance of a decent size snowstorm, thus the storm watch may need to go back up later tonight if trends continue. Also, the New Year's storm appears to be coming about 24 hours later than forecast, so I'll delay the STORM WATCH to noon on 1/1/15 to noon the following day for the time being. Otherwise, expect sunny skies and seasonable temps for late December.

Today in weather history- December 26, 2010- Blizzard Adrianne clobbers our region with as much as a foot of snow in places, along with extremely strong winds (with gusts to 50+ in places). This was the first major snowstorm of the 2010-11 Winter Season, which will forever live in infamy in New England weather lore as the January that followed produced more than the average seasonal total in snowstorms, including two monsters (Winter Storms Benedict and Denis, which you'll see discussed in this segment in the next month or so).

Thursday, December 25, 2014

Xmas Day!

I'm going to be short and sweet today- I don't want to distract people from their gift opening and other celebrations.

The Sunday STORM WATCH has been cancelled, as the storm will be just too far south to do anything whatsoever. It shouldn't even be cloudy! The New Year's Storm is, naturally, too early to call so I'll leave that STORM WATCH for another few days to see what happens, though I'm not too impressed with that potential either...

I will not do the weather history segment today in honor of Christmas Day. Please take the time you would spend reading or thinking about this portion with your families today and open those presents well. Merry Christmas to all!

I'll have a far more complete update tomorrow morning.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Brief update

Alright, let's take a look at what next week has in store.

I think the odds for truly huge snowstorms are decreasing at the moment. I'll keep the storm watches up for both Sun/Mon and New Year's Eve as a precaution...but it would be pretty tough to get 4+" totals at the moment. It seems the storms will be suppressed to our south at the moment...but it's still early (especially for the one around New Year's), so I promise to keep watch!

MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE!!!!!!!

12/24- STORM WARNING

Good Wednesday all

First off, happy Christmas Eve to everyone, and an early merry Christmas to all who celebrate the next two days. Now, on to what you really want to know if you visited this page- the weather!

Today is going to be a total nightmare. I'm dreaming of a wet and warm Christmas! A flood watch has been issued for the northern counties, but honestly should have been issued for everyone. The rain that started lightly this morning will gradually pick up in intensity throughout the day until it is absolutely pouring by later tonight. The storm will sadly stick around all night tonight, and it will likely still be pouring when we open presents tomorrow morning. When all is said and done, 2-3" of rain are likely, with locally higher amounts in the heavier downpours. Yikes.

The first part of the weekend looks good, but the second half is likely going to be threatened. The first part of Sunday, I'm not too concerned about. What I am concerned about is literally anywhere between Sunday afternoon and when the ball drops on Wednesday night. Somewhere in this time frame, a large coastal low will develop, and with very cold air in place over us, it could lead to a rather large snowstorm for all of Connecticut right down to the shoreline early next week...but the timing is ridiculously uncertain, (The Euro says late Sunday/Monday, and the GFS says Wednesday into Thursday)! Here's what I think it is though...I don't think this is the same storm. Thus, there are two storm threats next week...so my STORM WATCH is doubly issued from 12 PM Sunday to 8 PM Monday, and 7 PM Tuesday to the drop of the ball on Wednesday night.

My thoughts and prayers to those effected by the tornadoes yesterday in Mississippi and Louisiana.

Today in weather history- December 24, 2004- Victoria, Texas, of all places, gets lucky when a rare snow event develops in South Texas, coating the ground and giving them their first White Christmas in eighty-six years (that's the first since 1918!!!)

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

STORM UPDATES

Alright everyone, let's discuss the latest on the two storms I'm tracking.

First- all things still are on track for the 2-3" of rain tomorrow. Don't be shocked if you even hear thunder through the day tomorrow, nor if there is a 50-60mph wind gust. Hopefully this doesn't knock out your power- it probably won't, but I think some unlucky people will have no power for Christmas Day.

Anyhow...remember how earlier today I said..."Anyway, on to late Sunday and early Monday. A cold front will be moving through the region, and a low pressure system will develop along it. The key questions here are simple- 1. How strong will it be and 2. If it's strong enough, where will it track? Since the answer to both of these questions do not appear to favor a significant snowfall for the moment, I'll hold off on issuing a storm watch HOWEVER, I wouldn't be surprised if I had to issue one as soon as tonight. This would be from about noon Sunday to noon Monday. The worst case scenario here would be a major snowstorm, but I'd only give that around a 15-20% chance at the moment, less than the 25% chance I require for a storm watch."

Well, the GFS has come on board, and now that there's some pretty good model agreement on a snow event early next week, and I believe the chances of more 4 or more inches of snow has now exceeded 25% (I'd put it at about 40%), I shall indeed issue a STORM WATCH for 8 PM Sunday to 8 PM Monday...with the large gap due to the uncertain timing of the system. It is far too early for specific details, but the ingredients are coming together to potentially produce a major snowstorm for pretty much everybody right down to the shoreline (NO MIXING THIS TIME for most people, I think!)...so let's find out together.

I still intend to update twice tomorrow as well as on Christmas Day (though I'll be a bit late on Christmas in the AM- I need to open my presents too!!).

All in all, I'm dreaming of a white...New Year's. Snow lovers can hold out hope, as this storm appears to be the most promising since Thanksgiving based purely on the upper level pattern.

12/23- STORM WARNING!

Good Tuesday all-

Well, tomorrow is Christmas Eve, and that means that today is the last day before Christmas Vacation for most!! Unfortunately, you'll only be seeing clouds outside until as late as late Christmas afternoon. Today is going to be rather wet, but it's nothing compared to what we'll experience tomorrow! I'd expect 2-3" rainfall totals widespread tomorrow, and the rain will last until around mid-day on Christmas Morning. Beyond that, fortunately, things look nice until Sunday...but that could be a bit interesting, as you'll see below here.

Anyway, on to late Sunday and early Monday. A cold front will be moving through the region, and a low pressure system will develop along it. The key questions here are simple- 1. How strong will it be and 2. If it's strong enough, where will it track? Since the answer to both of these questions do not appear to favor a significant snowfall for the moment, I'll hold off on issuing a storm watch HOWEVER, I wouldn't be surprised if I had to issue one as soon as tonight. This would be from about noon Sunday to noon Monday. The worst case scenario here would be a major snowstorm, but I'd only give that around a 15-20% chance at the moment, less than the 25% chance I require for a storm watch.


Today in weather history- December 23, 1994- A monster storm develops along the East Coast and strikes New York City, producing brutal conditions in our region. As much as 4 inches of rain fall, and winds gust to over 70 mph!!! There remains debate to this day as to whether this storm really was just a nor'easter...there is certainly an argument to be made that the storm was actually tropical enough to be called a hurricane even upon landfall in New York. In fact, modern data suggests it probably was, since the sole criteria used to determine the fact that it wasn't a tropical cyclone was that the size of the wind radius (the distance from the center the winds were found) was 150 miles, which is big, granted, but Sandy had a wind radius of over 1,100 miles. Thus, it probably was a hurricane upon landfall in New York. Had it been named, it would have been Hurricane Helene.

Monday, December 22, 2014

12/22- Here comes a miserable christmas eve

Good Monday everyone- the last full day before the Christmas break for many!

Today is going to be the second best day of the week, but unfortunately that's not saying much at all. Mostly cloudy skies likely prevail today with some showers, and the same can be said for tomorrow (though tomorrow's showers should be more widespread). Christmas Eve still looks utterly miserable, but now it gets even worse because it looks like it will last around Christmas morning. The storm finally moves on late Thursday before Friday and Saturday are pretty good, but a nor'easter moves in Sunday, but what we get from that (if anything) is still very much up in the air.

Let's look ahead-

Today & Tomorrow- Scattered showers/flurries. No accumulation. Highs in the low 40s.

Christmas Eve (Steve's clunker of the week)- Pouring rain, strong wind, tree limbs down and power outages possible. 2-4" of rain possible. Highs in the mid-50s (Yes, really!)

Christmas Day- Pouring rain in the morning, clearing slowly through the day and dry by mid afternoon. Highs in the mid-40s

Friday/Saturday (Steve's picks of the week)- Sunny with highs in the high 30s/low 40s

Sunday- Heavy rain/snow possible. I won't forecast highs yet as this also depends on storm track.

Today in weather history- December 22, 1993- Somehow, 5 inches of snow fall in Turin, NY...in 20 minutes. This works out to an average of 15" an hour...or one inch every four minutes!!!

Sunday, December 21, 2014

STORM WATCH- Xmas disaster

Alright, all systems still go for the massive rainstorm on Wednesday, and I suspect that there's no dodging this one ;). Sadly, this means you should prepare for gusty winds and heavy rain on this day, which is a total nightmare for travelers...unlucky! I'll go with 2-3" of rain widespread!! It also looks like it'll pour on Christmas morning.

On another note, some areas may see as much as 2" of snow today from ocean effect flakes, and I already have a moderate accumulation outside my house on the Wallingford/North Haven line.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

STORM WATCH UPDATE

Alright, just keeping it short & sweet- no change in forecast from yesterday. Still expecting a torrential rainstorm on Wednesday featuring 2-4" of rain...thus...

The odds of a White Christmas this year are 2%. The only chance is if the Weds storm ends as back end flurries, and frankly I doubt it will.

Talk to you tomorrow!

Friday, December 19, 2014

12/19- Boring Xmas approach, xmas eve is awful!

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE- WE MADE IT!

Well, unfortunately for many, it's a pretty good bet that those dreaming of a White Christmas will not be getting their wish this year, but those dreaming of a wet Christmas (I doubt that's anyone) likely will. The weather until Christmas Eve looks tranquil with very little precipitation and highs in the 40s each day. Wednesday's storm looks extremely wet. My early call would be 2-4" of rain with temps as high as 60 and thunderstorms...not exactly the kind of storm anyone wants on Christmas Eve. Before my snow lovers go crying out the door this morning, though, it is important to note that this storm will flip the pattern to very, very cold, and with a negative NAO developing, it is likely that a very snowy January is on the way, and the forecast all autumn has been a tranquil December followed by a snowy 3 month period at the start of 2015. Remember, no snow fell in 2010-11 until December 26, but it was followed by the snowiest January on record, and second snowiest winter on record in Connecticut. I most certainly am not expecting that extreme, but it would be fun to see that happen! Either way, winter doesn't even start until Sunday, so relax, I promise there will be at least one or two big storms this year!

Today in weather history- December 19, 1967- Somehow, Flagstaff, AZ manages to get two snowstorms in less than a week...that are so extreme that eighty-six inches of snow covered the ground on this date! That means that both storms dropped about as much snow as 2013's Blizzard Charlotte did here in southern Connecticut. Yikes!

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Evening update- Euro East, GFS stays

Alright-

Time for the update on the storm coming on Christmas Eve. Let's start with the Euro, which came a solid 50-75 miles east on the 12z run, which is an interesting occurrence because it actually moves the rain/snow line as close as around Albany...but not close enough. The GFS remains squarely over Michigan and Lake Michigan...which doesn't really help us for snow lovers either. Thus, I'll say the same as I said this morning, because there really is no need to change my thinking at this time. Talk to you in the morning- enjoy your sleep!

7 days to Christmas


14 days to 2015!

12/18- Pretty nice until Sunday...

Good Thursday all-

A STORM WATCH is in effect for Christmas Eve, but for rain at the moment. I'll get there in a minute, however...

First off, today is going to be just fine, with partly cloudy skies and temps in the low 40s- in short, very similar to yesterday. The same goes for tomorrow and Saturday, but we run into some trouble with a light wintry mix Sunday, and then showers on Tuesday and then...

An absolutely monsterous storm will make an impact on us Wednesday. It's going to be huge. The problem for snow lovers is that the path appears to be in the Great Lakes, which means entirely rain. There may be some snow mixed in on the back end, but it'll be really tough to get accumulation, and I'm betting against it at the moment. Instead, we get stuck with wind-driven pouring rain on both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, with 3-5" of rain a possibility. Thus, it is important to watch, since that could cause a travel nightmare in the region.

I'll have more info on this one later tonight.

Today in weather history- December 18, 2009- Winter Storm Albert begins a path that eventually ends up producing a widespread snowfall in Connecticut, the first of a rather mundane 2009-10 winter season. Totals exceed one foot in parts of the state, and totals generally were between 8-12" for most.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

12/17- Where did the storm go?

Good Wednesday all-

First things first- the storm watch is done, not because it is going out to sea, but more because it simply won't exist at all. Sure the models had been trending weaker, but it's highly unusual for a storm that was rather significant just a few days ago to mysteriously disappear just two days later. Otherwise, dry conditions with highs in the 40s are likely until Christmas Eve, when a storm is brewing, but it's way too early to tell what it is going to be, though early indications suggest it may be rain, but I certainly wouldn't bank on that a week out.

Today in weather history- December 17, 2008- In a true meteorological anomaly, Las Vegas, NV somehow manages to receive 3.6" of snow, closing the local highways and schools. This was the biggest snowfall in the area since 1979...when 7.5" of snow somehow managed to fall on the area (I'd love to see weather maps from that day!)


Tuesday, December 16, 2014

12/16- Singing in the rain

Good Tuesday all-

Unfortunately, here comes some rain. The storm will begin late this afternoon with scattered showers and flurries, but the brunt of the storm will come through overnight while we sleep, so it shouldn't be too impactful of an event. Sure there may be some icy patches tomorrow morning, but I really am not too concerned about it. Otherwise, my forecast from yesterday holds. The storm watch for Sunday will remain in place today due to the uncertainty of the forecast, though it appears to be a weaker system than originally believed, and it may not be enough to warrant such an alert. Nevertheless, I'll hold it as a safeguard in case something changes today.

Today in weather history- December 16, 1811- New Madrid, MO is rocked by one of the worst, if not the worst, earthquake in US history. The quake is estimated to have measured stronger than 8 on the Richter Scale, and rang church bells as far away as Charleston, SC- and even caused the Mississippi River to run in reverse for a time. Fortunately, nobody is hurt because it occurs over a very sparsely populated area at the time. Such an event would be far more impactful in the modern world.

Monday, December 15, 2014

STORM WATCH issued for Sunday

Hello-

Well, I said I'd need to see a bit of a northward trend with the computer models today. About half of them are now closer, with fairly light amounts, with the Euro way out to sea. Despite the fact that I'd generally trust the Euro in these situations...it isn't worth not letting people know of the possibility of a storm. Thus, I'll issue a storm watch and see where things go from here. It's still 5.5 days out, so about a trillion different things could happen (anywhere from rain to a blizzard to bright sunshine are possible). If I had to guess now, I'd guess widespread 2-5" totals, but that is way too early to say for sure. That is not a forecast, just a representation of roughly what is appearing now. Enjoy the week, and I'll update you in the morning.



12/15- A good week, for the most part

Good Monday all-

Well, it's a brand new week here, and the last full week for pretty much everybody before the Christmas Vacation, the unofficial halfway point of the school year (though it actually falls in mid-January). In terms of weather, we'll finally see some sunshine today for the first time in oh-so-long, especially for those who live west of I-91. The only true trouble spot this week is tomorrow night and Wednesday, but it's rain, fortunately for the majority of people, and it could be a moderate amount (.1"-.25" perhaps), yet really shouldn't be very impactful at all. There is still a snowstorm threat for Saturday night and Sunday, but it doesn't appear particularly likely at this time, so I'll hold off on declaring a storm watch, but I will if it comes any closer whatsoever (which could happen as early as this evening if I see something change, and that's very possible 5 or 6 days out).

Let's look at the week-

Today- (Steve's pick of the week) Sunny and in the 40s

Tomorrow- Rain developing in the afternoon, highs in the higher 40s

Wednesday- AM showers, PM sun

Thursday, Friday, Saturday- Partly cloudy, temps in the high 30s or low 40s

Sunday- (Steve's clunker of the week)- watching the offshore nor'easter. If it comes, heavy snow and strong wind would be possible, but it isn't exactly too likely at the moment. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and highs in the mid-30s anyway, so not exactly pleasant.

Today in weather history- December 15, 1989- A nor'easter drops as much as ten inches of snow on our region, while another low pressure center over the Great Lakes nails Lake Erie's southern shore in Northeastern Ohio with as much as two feet of the white stuff.

Friday, December 12, 2014

12/12- Two chances for a white christmas

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE- WE MADE IT!

Well, today is going to be the nicest day in quite some time. which isn't really saying much though. It'll be mostly cloudy today, certainly, but it is likely to remain primarily dry. Fortunately, there really are no major storms in sight. A clipper system for the middle of next week is worth watching (primarily just to make sure it doesn't develop off the coast, which has caused the majority of the unexpected snowstorms over the years), but is unlikely to have much of an impact. Otherwise, we can expect quiet weather with sunny skies and temps in the 40s literally every single day for the next week or more.

There are two chances for a White Christmas this year, with one coming a week from tomorrow and the other coming on Christmas Day (!). The first appears to be trending towards rain for the moment, but it's so far out there's really no point in even trying to forecast what it will be. My belief is that the one for Christmas Day is more likely to be significant, but it's 13 days away, so I won't even begin to forecast for that one!

Today in weather history- December 12, 2010- The weight of snow on the roof of the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis (then the home of the Vikings), causes it to collapse, causing severe damage to the stadium, forcing the postponement of the game, which would later be played in Detroit. At the time, who would have guessed that that kind of thing would happen in our backyard just over a month later?

Thursday, December 11, 2014

12/11- Some snow!

Good Thursday all-

Well, some of us are waking up to snow this morning, and it's causing some schools in northern CT to delay this morning, which include Winchester, Bristol, Waterbury, etc. Fortunately, the snow won't have much of an impact in southern Connecticut, and therefore I don't expect delays to be declared for any areas where they haven't been already. Moving forward from today, the weather looks downright pleasant for most of the next 7 days. The exception to this rule is Wednesday, which appears similar to today with some snow around as a clipper system moves through. The next two chances for a major snowstorm appear to be a week from Saturday and Christmas Day (!), so those days are worth watching, but we are obviously miles too far out to predict anything at all in regards to these (I won't even guess on Saturday until Wednesday!)


Today in weather history- December 11, 1985- For the first time since February 2, 1939, Phoenix, AZ records 0.1" of snow!!! This was thanks to a massive trough which dug down and caused record lows among many locations in the Rocky Mountains and southwest. Parts of Wyoming went down to -25! Yikes! Certainly not something you see everyday, and memorable when you do!

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

12/10- Cold & Snowy

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be a rather unpleasant day, as it is going to be quite cold with snow on and off through the day today. To make matters worse, tonight it could accumulate one to two inches if you are unlucky enough to get trapped under one of the snow bands. It's a very tough forecast, purely because it's really tough to get good wrap-around moisture from a nor'easter, and it is very difficult to forecast where that one area that does get it will be. Either way, the weekend looks spectacular, and I wouldn't change anything of my plans for those days based on weather. The next storm threat appears to be sometime next week around Tuesday or Wednesday, but even the type of storm (clipper vs nor'easter) is still very much up in the air, so I wouldn't worry too much about that yet.

Today in weather history- December 10, 2002- In Corona, Greece, following a strong thunderstorm, a shower of...small fish falls on the area. This is usually the result of a waterspout or a tornado, and is not particularly unusual following such an event. The fish were sucked up into the funnel and deposited in Corona after they couldn't be held by the cloud (probably quite quickly!)

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

12/9- Schools delayed for many

Good Tuesday all-

Well, remember when I said this storm would have some nasty surprises? This is one of them, as it's pouring outside, but it's only 30 degrees at my house in Wallingford, so it's freezing rain and miserable outside. Granted, it isn't a total shock- the signs were there last evening and Winter Weather Advisories were issued, but this is a bit more significant than most people were thinking. This has lead to tons of crashes this morning, but it should melt by later this morning as temps go above freezing, so we are seeing most schools delay this morning instead of close. Anyhow, by the time this is said and done, two to three inches of a cold rain will have fallen, with 40+ mph wind gusts in places, and it'll just simply be an absolutely miserable day. The question will then shift to tomorrow morning as to how much wrap-around moisture we get from this storm as temps flop it over to snow. It is, however, very tough to get anything significant, and I doubt very much that there will be any accumulation (It's probably no more than a 15% chance of an inch or so). Scattered snow will last until Thursday evening, and the weekend looks cold and dry, with Monday looking fantastic with sunny skies and highs near 50. Also, there's a Wind Advisory for the shoreline, except New London County, where there is a High Wind Warning, so it'll blow your hats off too!

Today in weather history- December 9, 1786- A second snowstorm in less than a week pounds New England, dropping one to two feet of snow just a day after a 6" storm, and four days after another one to two foot storm. The end result? Up to four feet of snow were on the ground at once in parts of Massachusetts, which is 8" more than the snow that accumulated in the hardest hit areas after Blizzard Charlotte/Nemo in 2013.

PLEASE DRIVE SAFELY TODAY- THE ROADS ARE HORRIBLE!!!

Monday, December 8, 2014

12/8- STORM WARNING for heavy rain

Good Monday all-

Well this is, without a doubt, among the trickiest weeks of weather forecasting in my life. There are so many things that could bust forecasts, but let's start with what we know- today is going to be just fine, with mostly cloudy skies and temps in the 40s, a typical December day.

Tomorrow, we are pretty sure that a massive rainstorm is on the way, and thus the STORM WARNING is in effect from late tonight until midnight between Tues/Weds. Beyond that, it will change to snow. The question then becomes how much precipitation wraps around to fall in our region on the back end, since there could be a significant snowfall in portions of the state, particularly the northern third or so and Litchfield County. This storm and moisture will then be around us most of the week...but it appears as though it will clear in time for the weekend.

Today (Steve's rather not-so-great pick of the week)- Mostly cloudy, temps in the 40s

Tomorrow- (Steve's big time clunker of the week)- Torrential cold rainstorm with strong wind and 2-4" of rain statewide. Highs in the low 40s

Weds, Thurs, Fri- On and off snow showers. Some accumulation is possible in the higher elevations. Highs in the upper 30s or low 40s

Sat/Sun- Clearing, temps in the upper 40s.

Today in weather history- December 8, 1892- Gay Hill, Texas, achieves a tremendous feat by receiving a whopping half foot of freezing rain. The impacts that would have on the modern world is downright tremendous, since the majority of cities can be shut down for days with just 0.5" of ice, let alone twelve times that.

Sunday, December 7, 2014

12/7- STORM WATCH

Alright, as promised, here's the latest on Tuesday's nor'easter.

I think it'll be mostly rain, if not simply because it would be extremely hard for it to be the other way. Sure, it'll start as a mix, and likely end as some snow, but I think it'll predominantly be an ice-cold rainstorm all day Tuesday. Vermont and New Hampshire, on the other hand, are looking at 20+" of snow from this system...so we dodge the bullet there. We also may get some snow on the back end as the storm wraps up in the Gulf of Maine, but it is notoriously difficult to get any accumulation when that happens. Either way, today is likely the key day of model runs. What it is by the time we go to sleep tonight is what it is going to be, so I'll update with my final call around 8 PM this evening, so feel free to read then!

Saturday, December 6, 2014

12/6- STORM WATCH UPDATE

Happy weekend!

I'll write a brief update here with the latest on the storm next week. It's going to be rain. That's the bottom line...for Tuesday. The problem that I'm facing now is that the storm looks like it may stick around...all week! In fact, all computer models now change precipitation over to snow Wednesday, and feature a light but steady snow for three full days, which could result in a decent accumulation if that came to pass. Either way, keep this in mind- this is a true storm to remember with the rain. It's one of the more powerful nor'easters you can get, as a phase will capture the storm south of the region, and the low will likely pass either directly over or just east of us. Too early for me to predict any specific accumulations upon the flip-back, but it shouldn't be more than 6" or so.

I'll update again tonight.


Friday, December 5, 2014

12/5- STORM WATCH- Get ready for a soaker

Happy Friday everyone- we made it through another week!

Today itself is going to be just fine...until the evening hours. Unfortunately, around that time, a major rainstorm is going to move in. Tomorrow appears to be an absolute complete and total washout with one to two inches of rain possible as a large low pressure moves off the east seaboard. Sunday looks fine, and then we get to the good juicy stuff Monday.

The Euro is now painting what I feel is a far more realistic scenario than the one yesterday afternoon, as well as delaying the system's entry until late Monday night and Tuesday. The GFS is now showing a much weaker system but still an impactful one (a wintry mix all day Tuesday, but it is more of a frontal appearance than a nor'easter). Now the big question is precipitation type.

The Euro, despite being warm, is showing several inches of snow on the back end, as the storm stalls near Boston, which would bring wind out of the north and thus change over the precipitation on the back end on the order of 3-6" statewide, while the northwest hills could get significantly more since it could stay mostly, if not all, snow throughout the storm. For now, I'll say a wintry mix with strong winds for Monday night into Tuesday, changing to all snow late Tuesday. This is subject to change...a 30-40 mile jog east delivers a blizzard to everyone in Connecticut.

The storm is still over the Pacific Ocean, and we won't be able to be confident about anything until it hits California this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

Today in weather history- December 5, 2003- A massive nor'easter clobbers New England, delivering one to two feet of snow for everyone, including a record 47" for Pinkham Notch, NH. This is a situation that, if the Euro jogs 40 miles east, could verify once more...

Thursday, December 4, 2014

STORM WATCH UPDATE

Good evening everyone-

Well, we know one more thing tonight than we did yesterday. There is going to be a huge storm nearby early next week for sure. The GFS shifted so far west that it almost mimics the Euro now. The timing is also pretty likely going to be Monday afternoon through early Wednesday, thanks to the Greenland block being in place during this period, causing a slow-moving storm. The question now becomes precip type. I have to lean towards rain or a wintry mix at the current time, but if it was snow, it would be an epic storm with several feet (and it could be quite memorable even as modeled- it's a true monster setup). For now, I'll say heavy rain, with sleet mixing in during the storm at times. Northern Connecticut, though, could be in for quite a snowstorm. Someone in New England may well be measuring in feet early next week...we'll see who, if anyone, that is later. Enjoy your weekend.

Stats-

Odds of 2+" of rain- 60%

Odds of 3+" of snow- 35%

Odds of 6+" of snow- 25%

Odds of one foot of snow- 25%

Odds of two feet of snow- 10%

Odds of more than two feet of snow- 5%


12/4- STORM WATCH for Monday

Good Thursday all-

Well, here comes the vacillating models on a nor'easter. The GFS is so far out to sea that the weather would be sunny, whereas the Euro is forecasting a significant snowstorm, but not nearly as significant as last night (I'd say it's in the 5-10" ballpark now, which certainly seems possible and more likely than the extreme solution from yesterday. To boot, it was literally showing hurricane conditions...that won't happen, ever!) and is significantly further out to sea, but not far out enough for a miss, passing about 20-30 miles east of that oh-so-important 40/70 benchmark. Either way, the storm watch will stay in place today as we try to figure out the computer models. Meanwhile, the weekend looks like a nightmarish total washout for both days, I'm afraid. It may start as a wintry mix for literally an hour or two tomorrow night, but no accumulation will happen before it turns into a massive rainstorm for Saturday, which is associated with the same low that will spawn the nor'easter for Monday.

I'll have more on the potential winter storm later tonight around 6 when all of today's model runs are finished.

Today in weather history- December 4, 1964- A major ice storm strikes the northeast, as one and a half inches of freezing rain accumulates in portions of Massachusetts and New York, knocking out power to some 80,000 homes, some of which would not regain electricity for five days. That's really painful in December!

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

STORM WATCH ISSUED

Good evening!

Well, it's time to be in storm watch mode as we follow a nor'easter for early next week. The timing is yet to be nailed down, but Monday and Tuesday could both be impacted. It's a model war developing again. The European model, which pretty much nailed the 11/26 storm, is not far away from (maybe 15 miles or so) forecasting nearly thirty inches of snow for everyone in Connecticut, blizzard conditions for everyone in New England, and a very similar setup to what we saw in February 2013. DO NOT, and I repeat DO NOT take this literally, but it shows the potential is there for a rather large snow event early next week. Also, there may be an entirely different nor'easter nearby a week from tomorrow. There is a slim possibility, albeit a very slim one, of the oh-so-rare double whammy...that would be something to write home about if both made a direct hit. Either way, we need to focus on Monday and Tuesday for the major nor'easter threat first. Thursday will wait for another time. The STORM WATCH I am issuing will run from 8 AM Monday to midnight Wednesday AM, but that is just to encompass all possibilities and will be revised as the models come into agreement.

Will we get nothing at all, or walloped with feet of snow twice next week? Who knows....but I'll keep you posted!

12/3- A wet weekend

Good Wednesday all-

Well, today isn't starting out too well, but we expected this, so it's not a big deal. The weather should clear up by later this afternoon and be at least partly, if not primarily, sunny. This weather will hold through tomorrow and most of Friday before the next round of precip moves through. Unfortunately, the weekend right now look to be a total washout. A slow-moving low will move off the coast late Friday and drift southwards. This will cause the rare event of the low giving us rain, moving away, and then becoming a nor'easter worth watching, though it appears it'll be too close for snow, instead delivering us another bout of torrential rain early next week. It's extremely lucky that this is early December though, as this would have been a truly monster snowstorm if there was more cold air in place as there may be in February, for example. Either way, the storm will finally clear by Tuesday, and the middle of next week should be fine. Beyond that...who knows? Anyone can guess weather a week out and be nearly as accurate as forecasts beyond the 8 day timeframe or so.

Today in weather history- December 3, 1992- A nor'easter drops copius amounts of heavy wet snow across New England. The jackpot this time was Monterey, MA, with a what-now-appears-to-be-paltry 19 inches of snow. Incredibly, this was the highest snowfall total anywhere in Massachusetts in the five previous years. Now, Connecticut has seen snowfall totals exceed 19" a whopping three times in the last four winters (January 2011's Winter Storms Benedict & Denis and February 8-9, 2013's Blizzard Charlotte).


Tuesday, December 2, 2014

12/2- Wintry mix tonight

Good Tuesday all-

Today in and of itself is going to be just fine, but unfortunately tonight a wintry mix is likely to develops towards 5 or 6 tonight, but it should quickly transition to rain this evening for most of our area unless I have readers north of, say, Hartford, in which case I'd be very concerned about icy roads in the morning as that portion of the state could transition to freezing rain and/or sleet for a bit tonight as well before making the transition. Otherwise, the rest of the week looks very uninteresting, with the chance for a flurry or shower existing only on Friday and Sunday mornings.

Today in weather history- December 2, 1925- An incredibly strange event- a Tropical Storm strikes Florida and causes significant damage before coming up the coast and bringing tropical storm conditions to southern New England! Winds gusted as high as 60mph on Block Island as a result of the storm. Needless to say, this is amazingly rare, since the water temperature is so cold in our area by now, but it goes to show that the weather is a fickle beast and to expect the unexpected!

Monday, December 1, 2014

12/1- Pretty boring week

Good Monday everyone- I hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving!

You'll be rewarded for getting through the weekend with a rather uninteresting week in the weather world, except for Wednesday morning. Quite honestly, I am not exactly stoked about anything anytime in the near future weather wise, as no nor'easters are in sight. Let's take a look at the next week shall we?

Today- (Steve's pick of the week)- Nice and clear, highs in the high 40s

Tuesday- Increasing clouds, PM wintry mix develops

Wednesday- AM icing possible with a wintry mix. Some school delays are possible, and highs in the low to mid 40s.

Thursday to Sunday- Identical weather of mostly sunny skies and temps in the mid 40s.

Also worth noting- Yesterday marked the end of the 2014 Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. The Atlantic, with only eight named storms (albeit six hurricanes), was the least active since 1994, whereas the Pacific experienced its' fourth most active season of all time with  a whopping twenty-two named storms, sixteen hurricanes, and nine major hurricanes!!

Here we go- Thanks for your patience.

December 1, 1896- In Kipp, MT, an insane warm front raises temperatures 34 degrees...in 7 minutes and 80 degrees in just a few hours! Remarkably, it causes a 31 inch snowpack to completely melt in just 12 hours!

Happy December everyone- May you have a fantastic holiday season!

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

11/26- STORM WARNING- A last minute shift?

Alright everyone, Winter Storm Ariana is here!!

Unfortunately, there are still a huge number of possibilities that could happen in today's storm. There was a bit of a trend towards more sleet last night, which could severely cut down snowfall totals to something like 3-6" or 2-5" if we are unlucky, whereas cooler areas in New Haven county, such as Meriden/Wallingford/North Haven, could easily pick up a half foot of snow today...or hardly anything, depending on where the sleet line sets up. This has been a storm that has been modeled absolutely pathetically by the models, and this should really ignite some tinkering with them because, quite honestly, I will have a hard time trusting them for quite a while. What a nightmare this week has been for me and prediction wise...a brutal forecast that still, I have to give the huge range of 3-10 inches of snow depending on how much sleet mixes in. Obviously, the most likely range is roughly 4-8" if you forced me to pick a smaller range. Either way, enjoy today if you get a snow day!

I'll update later tonight with my snowfall total as well as others from across CT.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Hello, Ariana!

Hey everyone-

The forecast remains steady, but I am updating to inform you that channel 3 has upgraded their storm total to a statewide average of six inches...which means we now have the first named storm of 2014-15...Winter Storm Ariana! The Weather Channel's name for this storm, Cato, will not be used here, since the WFSB storm names are more local. Note that, contrary to belief in recent years, there is no offical name for winter storms, and this is done purely to increase awareness. Many in the meteorological world disagree with this practice, however I will use them because it is easier to refer to them from a historical standpoint.

For example- 2013's blizzard was named Charlotte, 2006's was Carson, and we got all the way to Winter Storm Olivia in 1995-96! The most named storms I've seen in a winter is 5, which happened in both 2010-11 and 2013-14, though last year we came one inch shy of having a sixth named storm.

11/25- STORM WARNING- Major nor'easter on the way

Good Tuesday all-

A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for Hartford, Tolland, & Litchfield county, and the WINTER STORM WATCH has been expanded to the shoreline in New Haven and Fairfield counties. The computer models actually trended a bit snowier last night, but there are still a significant number saying 2-5"...and a significant number saying 12-20". Thus, I'll stick in the middle with 5-10" and go from there. This is among the most complex storms to predict as a forecaster. There is going to be an area where wintry mix cuts down the snow totals by over half...while the town immediately to their north and west could get two or even three times as much as the surrounding areas. It really is all about the timing of the cold air. If this was January, it would be 1-2 feet for everyone...but it isn't, so those totals should be relegated to just NW of the rain/snow line. I think someone in New England will receive 18", but whether that's over us, in the Berkshires, or near Boston? Anybody's guess, quite honestly. For example, NOAA gives me in Wallingford a 15% chance of barely getting an inch...and a 15% chance of picking up well over a foot. The volatility of snowfall forecasts with this storm is incredible...and I am sure I'll have different totals later tonight. There is a chance I come back tonight and say "hardly anything", but there is also a chance I say "everyone's getting a foot or more", as well as "looks like somewhere in between". Each of these has a roughly 30% chance of happening...but I think the snowier solution is more likely. The odds are broken down below:

North of I-91's exit 9

2+"- 100%

4+"- 75%

6+"- 50/50

8+"- 45%

1 foot +- 25%

South of that

2"- 80%

4"- 50/50

6"- 40%

8"- 25%

1 foot + - 10%

I HATE not being able to be more specific especially being less than a day out, but there is a truly equal chance of anywhere between 2 and 18 inches. This is the most annoying forecast I've had in recent memory. Be prepared to be disappointed with little snow, or have three times as much snow as some channels are forecasting. Be prepared for the worst, hope for the best.

Mid-day model runs today will be key. I'll update around 6 tonight for final predictions. Enjoy!

Monday, November 24, 2014

11/24- WINTER STORM ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY!!!!!

Good Monday all

This is Thanksgiving week, and this is that last thing you want to hear for the big travel day before thanksgiving. It's my favorite words, but everyone else's least favorite

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the entirety of the region except the immediate shoreline, but I think even they'll get one this afternoon.

The ECMWF shifted east last night, so we finally have a pretty decent idea for accumulations. In the end, I think most of, if not all of Connecticut, is about to pick up six to twelve inches of snow, mostly Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Today, it will be warm but very wet, and it is really going to pour this AM dropping 0.5" to 1" of rain on everyone. The rain should be gone by about noon though, and it wouldn't surprise me if someone hit 70 degrees today! Tomorrow, though, we trend colder before the big hammer drops Wednesday. Here's what I'm thinking.

Wednesday morning we'll wake up to mostly cloudy skies.
Rain or a wintry mix (depending on how far north you are) develops at around noon

By 3-4 PM, the mix changes to a heavy wet snow.

It snows extremely hard all night and into the morning on Thursday.

Snow comes to an end 9-10 AM Thursday morning from northwest to southeast.

All in all, be ready to shovel, plow, and the whole deal. A major nor'easter is coming, it's no longer a hypothetical. It will happen. My call is 6-12" north of exit 9, with 4-7" south of that.

Enjoy the snow, but please change travel plans Wednesday, especially the afternoon. You'll be snowed in if you don't and spending thanksgiving on your own!

Sunday, November 23, 2014

STORM WATCH UPDATE- Thanksgiving Travel Nightmare Developing

Well everyone- the verdict is in...and it's probably the one that most of you were not hoping for.

Personally, I am delighted to announce that our first truly major snowfall is likely on the way for Wednesday evening. Exact amounts remain to be determined. The track still needs to be pinpointed because the timing of the cold air arriving will be a huge key for how much we get. If the Euro is right...I think most places get 3-6" followed by freezing rain, whereas if the GFS is right, we get mostly if not entirely snow...and some places would get over one foot. Thus, I hesitate to forecast amounts, but I'll do it just so you see the average. A decent place to start is 4-7" shoreline, and 6-12" inland, but these could certainly change (and probably will as we narrow down the track). Either way, the timing of the storm is also key, and here is a look at your week ahead to plan for the turkey day!

Tomorrow (Monday 11/24)- Heavy rain, 0.5-1" of accumulation, especially in the AM, but highs in the 60s!!

Tuesday- (Steve's pick of the week)- Mostly sunny and a bit cooler. Highs in the 50s.

Wednesday- (Steve's big time clunker of the week)- Increasing clouds, rain developing in the afternoon, changing to snow around 5-10 PM statewide. Near-blizzard or blizzard conditions develop around midnight. Major accumulations possible, stay tuned.

Thanksgiving- Heavy snow in the morning, tapering off by 9 or 10 AM. Early call is 6-12" north of I-91's exit 9, and 3-6" south of that. Subject to change. PM flurries possible as the storm pulls away. Highs in the low 40s

Friday- Much better, partly cloudy but somewhat cold.

Saturday- Watching a clipper for some light accumulating snow but way too early for details and it will not be as big as Wednesday's storm.

Please keep an eye on this blog in the coming days. This could be our biggest snowstorm since March 2013 if things play out right...I believe that the storm name would be Anna on Channel 3, and the Weather Channel's name would be Cato.

I expect NOAA to issue Winter Storm Watches tomorrow afternoon if nothing significant changes.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Is a Thanksgiving Travel Nightmare Unfolding?

Hey everyone-

Here's the latest on the potential winter storm on Weds/Thurs of next week. There are two distinct model camps for this one still. The GFS looked like it was caving to the Euro last night, but it's back out to sea this morning. The problem that I am faced with is that the Euro not only stayed with a hit...but made it a significantly bigger hit...and if it pans out just a bit colder would be a brutal, brutal snowstorm for many people in our area, featuring blizzard conditions and several feet of snow, since the model is showing almost two inches of liquid precipitation. As it is now, it's more of a wintry mess, with probably 3-6" of slushy snow and rain. UGH! This is the main frustration of being a weatherman...and it can be really painful sometimes. You have a forecast that people are going to be asking you for all week, and all I can really honestly say with confidence is "There will be a storm nearby, but it might rain, snow, a mixture of both, or be sunny". All we can do is wait and see. I was watching the news this morning and one channel said they think the storm will miss. I don't ordinarily comment on this...but that seems utterly insane to say at this stage when the most accurate computer model shows a direct hit. Granted, there are more models out to sea to our south, but only just barely to our south, and the Euro was the one that accurately portrayed Hurricane Sandy a week out. Play the waiting game here, but if you are traveling late Wednesday or thanksgiving morning, I'd have a backup plan in mind should we get clobbered by this storm.

Friday, November 21, 2014

11/21- Brief Update

Hey everyone-

Sorry for not making my regular post today but I have had a bit of a crazy morning running around. In any event, I'm making this unusually timed post for a number of reasons. The first is to issue a STORM WATCH for The night of 11/26 and 11/27- this is Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day, as the European model is now showing a large nor'easter developing off our shoreline. Exactly what type of precip, if any, will fall, is very much still up in the air, but the timing of this is important enough to issue this advisory.

On another note, I will not be able to update this again (after tomorrow morning) until Sunday night- I am going away tomorrow and will not be home in time for the evening update nor the morning of 11/23.

If anyone is wondering, and please take this with a jar of salt, taken verbatim (or literally exactly what it shows now), the euro is showing rain changing to an accumulating snow along the lines of 4-8 inches. For now, don't panic and wait to see what the weekend model runs bring.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

11/20- Dozer weather

Good Thursday all-

Well, I shan't bore you with any long technical discussion, but simply give you an update on the few "trouble dates" in the forecast and give you an early forecast for turkey day!

Monday: A storm moves far to our west, but still gives us a fair amount of rain, let's say between 0.5" and 0.75" with locally as much as 1" for now.

Wednesday: The coastal storm misses, but a cold front should still provide mixed precip

Thanksgiving Day: Moderate snow. There could be accumulations here as a clipper system moves through...that would be quite the thanksgiving gift...we'll see what happens!

In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development occurred with the system yesterday, nor is any expected anytime soon. 10 days until the end of the hurricane season.

Today in weather history- November 20, 2014- Well, I hardly ever do this, but it's worth it. Two to three more feet of snow are expected south of Buffalo today, which could in some areas push total 48 hour snowfall to over one hundred inches! I don't think it can be argued that this deserves mention here since this would be nearly unprecedented for Buffalo, even with how used to snow they are.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

11/19- Could it be a warm up?

Good Wednesday all-

And once again there is really not going to be a long post today. All I can really talk about is temperatures but there is a significant warm-up on the way so, even though it is absolutely freezing this morning (I had a temperature of 19 at my house), it will get better. In fact, it may reach 60 on Sunday before we get the cold front that will bring it down into the 40s once more around Wednesday, but a massive rainstorm is possible on Wednesday with an inch or more of rain looking possible, but this is far from agreed upon in the fickle computer model world, so let's keep our fingers crossed- that would be utterly miserable for people trying to travel somewhere for the turkey day holiday.

In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon

In the Pacific- A low 550 miles south of Manzanillo has a brief window to develop today and tomorrow before shear becomes unfavorable, though there is a pretty decent chance it will indeed develop.

12 days to the end of hurricane season.

Today in weather history- November 19, 1981- A foot of snow falls on the twin cities, which is not unusual in and of itself, but because it was the wet kind, the roof of the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, home of the Twins and Vikings, collapses.


Tuesday, November 18, 2014

11/18- Even colder!

Good Tuesday everyone-

Well, today is going to be cold indeed with temps in the mid to high 30s, but I'm afraid it's just the beginning...since I think parts of the area won't even escape the 20s tomorrow! Fortunately, however, you're getting a short post today because there really aren't any big storms in sight, in fact the best chance for accumulating snow in the near future appears to be coming on 11/26- the day before thanksgiving- which would cause an absolute nightmare for travelers, or I wouldn't even mention it 8 days out.


In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development anytime soon.

Today in weather history- November 18, 1929- An amazingly strange event occurs when an earthquake occurs off the coast of Newfoundland, which causes an undersea landslide, which causes a tsunami in the Atlantic Ocean. It causes some fatalities in Newfoundland, and the tsunami is felt as far away as Portugal and South Carolina!

Monday, November 17, 2014

11/17- STORM WARNING

Good Monday everyone-

Today is going to be a truly miserable day- the worst possible day, quite honestly. Not only are temperatures going to be in the low 40s or high 30s, but it is going to pour pretty much all day. In fact, 1-2" of rain are very possible as a storm system essentially passes directly over our heads this morning. For most of our area, it was rain the entire time, though northern Hartford County, for example, could have a few icy patches, but there are no school delays in this area. Thus, the storm warning will remain in place until 5 PM this evening. Beyond today, however, while it will be dry, it will simply be really, really cold. We may not even hit the freezing point on Wednesday...so now let's look at the 7-day!

Today- (Steve's clunker of the year!)- Pouring rain and temps in the low-40s or high 30s. One to two inches of rain possible. YIKES!

Tomorrow- Clearing but cold. Highs in the high 30s.

Wednesday- Absolutely frigid. Highs in the high 20s and low 30s.

Thursday, Friday, & Saturday- More pleasant, with sunny conditions and highs near 40.

Sunday- (Steve's pick of the week)- Much better- sunny skies and temps near 50!

In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development anytime soon. 13 days until the end of the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.

Today in weather history- November 17, 2013- An EF4 tornado hits Washington, IL, killing 8 people. In a odd event, a different severe thunderstorm suspends the Chicago Bears home game as the team evacuated the stands for two hours (highly unusual since the NFL will literally play through almost anything).

Sunday, November 16, 2014

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN FAIRFIELD

Hello everyone- this is the STORM WATCH Sunday update.

Unfortunately, the time has come for me to change the STORM WATCH to a STORM WARNING. When this happens, I'll update about every 5 hours during a storm, and be ready for changes in events. Tonight and tomorrow are the key days here. The weather deteriorates overnight tonight, starting as a wintry mix. Unfortunately, the conditions may be just right for the precip to hang around as the dreaded freezing rain tonight...and there therefore is a 35-40% chance of a school delay tomorrow morning north of about exit 9. Anything further south will likely be all rain. Once that clears, anywhere between 1 and 2 inches of rain are possible, and thus the storm warning is necessary. I'll be watching!

Friday, November 14, 2014

STORM WATCH UPDATE

Alright- it seems the verdict is in for Monday


And it's rain. The bottom line is that there is likely to be a significant rainstorm on Monday. Sure, there may be some mixing in the overnight hours, but it shouldn't be a big deal for anybody. It could certainly have been worse...so we can take a sigh of relief that it isn't a full snowstorm. The other ideas for the next week remain icy cold weather. It seems we finally turn off the nor'easter machine for a week or so, but it appears that a massive storm could be very close by very near thanksgiving. In fact, the GFS is forecasting a huge snowstorm for the Wednesday before thanksgiving. There is obviously tons of time for that to change, but can you imagine what a nightmare that would be for traveling? I think that most people would rather have the storm, if there has to be one, to be on turkey day itself (including me, quite honestly).

My computer is being much nicer to me now so...

A delayed "Today in weather history" for you- November 14, 1999- Tropical Storm Lenny forms in the Caribbean, and begins it's track...eastward. Lenny would rapidly intensify to a 155mph category 4 storm, just one mph shy of being the first November cat 5. Ultimately, 17 people are killed by the storm and $686 million in damage is caused by the storm. The name would be retired and replaced with "Lee" in 2005, which was used for a weak tropical storm that year, and used again in 2011, which hit Louisiana and caused massive flooding and over a billion dollars in damage.

11/14- Getting even colder...

Happy Friday everyone- we made it!

Today is going to be rather chilly. In fact, I doubt temps escape the 30s today- but at least there will not be any significant precipitation. The weekend will not be anything bad at all- just a tad chilly. Highs are likely to be in the high 30s or low 40s both days. The verdict appears to be in for Monday as mostly if not entirely rain- which should annoy the majority of my readers- sorry! After that, there are places on Wednesday that may even struggle to reach the freezing mark, and the end of the week includes a close call from a storm. Note that the STORM WATCH remains because the nor'easter is producing enough rain to warrant it. Thus, I'll update again tonight, but we shall see if the GFS goes colder again like it did last time.

In the Atlantic & Pacific- No tropical development is likely anytime soon.

Today in weather history- My computer is not being nice to me right now- I'll try to have this feature in my evening post.

Thursday, November 13, 2014

STORM WATCH UPDATE

Good evening everyone-

Well, the snow is here. The GFS model tonight has come in moist (2-4" statewide), but quite frankly I think that's too moist. At my house on the Wallingford/North Haven line, we had a few showers turn into a wet snowfall around 8 this evening. I see no reason to change my forecast of nothing to two inches at the shore and one to three inches inland. Now onto Monday's event, which continues to be a very complex battle between the two major models with the GFS showing mainly wintry precip and the Euro showing all rain. The bottom line is, though, that both models are forecasting a significant storm of some kind, thus the storm watch shall remain another day. Feel free to submit snowfall totals in the comments if you choose! Hopefully we get some solid numbers tonight. Best of luck to everyone- let it snow!


11/13- Let it snow, let it snow!

Good Thursday all-

Well today is the day that snow lovers have been waiting for for some 5 months- it's our first accumulating snow of 2014-15! Tonight will be quite interesting for most areas here. The models are now indicating a brief burst of moderate to even heavy snow later this evening. In fact- it's enough for me to issue my first snowfall and school impact prediction of the year. Here's how this will work this year:

Shoreline: Nothing to 1" of snow, no school impacts are likely since there may be a mix with rain. Subject to change if GFS computer model is correct.

Inland (I-91's exit 10 and north): The temps will be cold enough for all snow. 1-3" of snow is likely, and there will likely be some 90-minute delays in this region, depending on how late the snow stops in the morning. There is little risk of closures, since the storm will end early tomorrow.

There is a 40% chance of your district having a 90-minute delay north of exit 10

Anyway, the weekend looks dry, but then we get into the STORM WATCH time frame of Monday, and the GFS interestingly reverted back to a snowstorm last night. I did say that variations in track were likely, and there you go. I think that, for now, Importantly the in-between of the two is ice, but obviously the odds are literally 33-33-33 right now of all 3 kinds of precip, so let's not say anything. It is worth noting, of course, that if it's all snow it would be a very significant snowstorm, so I'll see what happens with the models today. We are not far from having a better idea on this, but I certainly will update over the weekend since we are under a storm watch.

In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development anytime soon.


 Today in weather history- November 13, 1881- In Dry Pond, GA, hailstones from a severe storm on the 8th are still visible on this date. This is incredibly bizarre for an area that far south, and even in general since storms need at least some warm air to fuel themselves.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

STORM WATCH UPDATE

Hello everyone-

Well, today's computer model runs are in and, if you like snow, it hasn't gone well for you. For now, all major computer models are indicating a storm track pretty much right over our head, which would deliver us a brief burst of snow at the onset before a torrential rainstorm with the temps at around 38, which would be absolutely miserable indeed. Despite that, the rain itself would have sufficient totals to merit a storm advisory of its' own right, so the storm watch shall remain for the time being. It also appears that tomorrow night's flurries are trying to be a bit more than that, and I may have to give my first accumulation and school impacts map tomorrow morning. We'll see- but I quite honestly can't see it being too much of an accumulation. It's one of those deals where if everything goes absolutely, 100% perfect (the top 10% of possibilities), it would still only be a 3-5, with locally 6" in the higher elevations deal. My early call for tomorrow night is only a coating to 2", with some in the higher elevations getting 3". This is much more than I was expecting at noon, however, so it could be rather interesting to see the overnight model runs tonight.

Talk to you all in the morning!!!

11/12- The last good day of the year?

Good Wednesday all-

I'll start by talking about the nor'easter that was scheduled for Sunday night and Monday. It now appears that the threat is more Monday into Tuesday, since the models have delayed its' arrival by a day or so. Thus, I will oblige them by changing the storm watch to noon Monday to noon Tuesday. Otherwise, we pretty much have the same story as last night. The Euro is far enough inland to give us nothing but a torrential downpour of rain, while the GFS is taking a snow track (but recently has been almost too far out to sea to give us much of anything). Since the compromise solution would be pretty much right over us, or just to our southeast (the perfect snow track), the storm watch will remain- as well as the fact that the Euro track may give us 2+" of rain in its' own right. It's interesting that the two models are literally trending in completely opposite directions. I can't tell you how frustrating that is, though not unexpected this far out. Anyway, I hope everyone gets out and enjoys today's mostly cloudy skies and temps in the high 50s or low 60s, since we may not see these temps again this year. Next week, if you can believe it, looks much colder than this week, and some days we won't reach 40! The only confidence we have in any precipitation, at the moment, is tomorrow night into Friday, when some light snow is likely for pretty much everybody as a nor'easter goes far out to sea to our southeast, sparing us any significant impacts. Also, note that a DENSE FOG ADVISORY has been issued until 9 AM this morning.

In the Atlantic and Pacific- No development anytime soon. The seasons here end in 18 days, on November 30.

Today in weather history- November 12, 1987- A nor'easter deposits a large early season snowfall on New England. Snowfall totals were impressive for so early in the season, with as much as 14" of snow falling in Plymouth County, MA. Providence, RI sets the monthly 24-hour record by recording 9.7" of the white stuff.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

STORM ALERT update

Good evening everyone-

There is truly very little change in the situation for Sunday night. Sure, the GFS is a bit less robust tonight than it was this morning, but it's one of the more unreliable model runs. That, of course, is unsurprising given that we are still 5 days out, and forecasts can and will change in the coming days. My breakdown of odds are below-

Chances of any snow at all- 90%

Chance of 1+" of accumulation- 50%

Chance of 3+" of accumulation- 30%

Chance of 6+" of accumulation- 10%.

Thus, the storm watch will remain in effect this evening, since there is still a 20% chance of 3+", and I'd have given very similar odds to these in the morning. Essentially, consider today a wash- and I'll have an update tomorrow morning. Hope you enjoyed your day off!

11/11- STORM WATCH ISSUED

Good Tuesday all- Happy Veteran's Day- thanks to all vets for their service to our country.

Unfortunately for snow-haters, the threat of a major nor'easter is looking possible Sunday night into Monday...depending on what happens with the track. Thus, there is a greater than 20% chance of 3+ inches of snow, or 2+ inches of rain, so a storm watch has been issued for all areas from 3 PM Sunday to noon Monday. The exact details are far from certain this far out, however, so that's all I can really say. The other interesting story is that I do think most areas see some flakes Friday morning, which won't accumulate but will still give us the first snow in most locations (Not all- I had mine in Wallingford on 11/1). Somehow, those waiting for a warmup will have to wait, because next week actually looks colder than this week! Yikes! I'll have more on the impending storm Sunday night later this evening.

In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development anytime soon. The brief development window that the low off Mexico had has closed.

Today in weather history- November 11, 1911- One of the more incredible events in meteorological history occurs across the central US. Kansas City, MO, had a morning high of 76, and then...it was snowing hard by mid-afternoon. Another crazy but true event- an F4 tornado hits Janesville, IL, killing 9 people...and then the survivors have to dig out when the rainstorm changes into a blizzard and buries all the damage!

Monday, November 10, 2014

11/10- Here comes the freezer

Good Monday all-

Welcome to a new week of weather! I'll begin with the forecast

Today: Mostly Sunny, highs in the low to mid 50s

Tomorrow (Steve's pick of the week): Partly cloudy, highs near 60!!

Wednesday: A low chance (20-30%) of scattered showers. Highs in the low 50s.

Thursday: Sunny but way colder. Highs in the low 40s

Friday (Steve's clunker of the week): A wintry mix in the morning, followed by frigid temperatures. Highs in the high 30s!

Saturday: Sunny with highs near 40.

Sunday: Increasing clouds, highs around 45

Essentially, the story of this week is the cold, and the passing by of several nor'easters just far enough to our southeast that we'll get some clouds, but not much else of anything. Tomorrow is going to be beautiful, but it's probably the last time we get anywhere near that number until spring. We then get plunged into the arctic blast that has been hyped so much in the news this week (AND IT ISN'T THE POLAR VORTEX!). A pair of nor'easters then misses Wednesday and Friday. Unfortunately, the arctic plunge will drop lows to the low 20s, or upper teens on Thursday night! Otherwise, a huge storm is possible next Monday, but it lies just outside my 7 day forecast. The threat, however, of an impactful storm is high enough to, should current information remain where it is, issue a storm watch on Wednesday.

In the Atlantic- Development is not expected anytime soon. It's entirely possible that the season is over, as conditions are unfavorable pretty much everywhere.

In the Pacific- A tropical depression may form off the coast of Mexico today, but it won't be strong and it won't survive long as it will hit Mexico and enter unfavorable conditions.

Today in weather history- November 10, 2002- A powerful cold front leads to a very late-season severe outbreak which ultimately spawns an F4 tornado in Van Wert County, Ohio. On the same day, a mile-wide tornado kills 12 people in Mossy Grove, TN.

Friday, November 7, 2014

11/7- Nice weekend, but here comes the cold!

Happy Friday everyone- we made it!!

Today is going to be a predominantly cloudy day, as yesterday's storm moves out to the northeast (dumping northern Maine with several inches of snow in the process). This cloud cover, though, kept the lows from dropping too far, but will also prevent highs from getting out of the low 50s today. The two weekend days look extremely similar with predominantly sunny skies and temperatures in the high 40s/low 50s range. An early look at next week shows us having a close encounter with a storm system midweek, but if it produces precipitation here, it'll be rain. After that, the weather will likely turn unbelievably cold for mid-November, and many areas (if not most) will not get out of the 30s by Thursday, perhaps. To make matters worse (and this is very early speculation here), we could be looking at overnight lows in the high teens pretty much statewide. On the positive note, the high pressure required to keep cold air of this magnitude in place will likely preclude any storm chance over the region.

In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon

In the Pacific- A low off the Mexican coast, believe it or not, is probably going to become Tropical Storm Winnie in the next week or so, climbing this season even higher up the all time most active list.

Today in weather history- November 7, 2012- An early season nor'easter slams Southern New England with as much as a foot of snow and gusty wind. The storm comes just a week after Hurricane Sandy hit New Jersey, and it causes snow all the way down to the Jersey coast, significantly delaying recovery efforts. This is also the first storm ever named by the Weather Channel, as they dubbed it "Winter Storm Athena". 

Thursday, November 6, 2014

11/6- Rain

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be wet...and I mean really wet, I'm afraid. All areas appear as though they'll pick up lots of rain this evening, and I suspect an inch or so of rain is possible for many areas throughout our region as a coastal storm develops far too close to the shore to give us any frozen precip. Beyond this storm, it appears that we'll warm things up for a bit next week, but enjoy it while it lasts. Although no precipitation is likely for the next several days after today, don't hold your breath on it holding, because the next few weeks look very very cold, with a good possibility of a stormy pattern developing. As always, though, the forecast beyond a week is far too early to call, so don't worry too much about it.

In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon.

In the Pacific- A low has developed several hundred miles off the coast of Mexico, and conditions appear pretty favorable for development (considering it's early November). The next name on the Pacific is Winnie. It is important to note a few things here. In the Pacific basin, unlike the Atlantic, there are names starting with X, Y, and Z. Thus, there are still four names left before they have to resort to using the Greek alphabet, which has only happened in the Atlantic basin (in 2005). Additionally, if there is one more hurricane in the Pacific, we'll break the all time record for the most hurricanes ever recorded in a single season in the East Pacific. Yikes! What a season it has been for them.

Today in weather history- November 6, 2005- A bizarre late season F3 tornado hits north Kentucky and southern Indiana. The storm passes directly over a mobile home park, which is asking for disaster, and this was no exception as 20 are killed in the mobile home park, in addition to 4 elsewhere, and nearly 240 are injured.

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

11/5- Here comes the rain...

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be a very nice day, with temps in the mid 60s, albeit with increasing clouds the longer we go through the afternoon. I'm afraid to say, however, that tomorrow is a total washout with pouring rain and decreasing temperatures as a cold front moves through the region. Saturday looks absolutely frigid, and most areas won't even get near 50, and some cooler spots may be trapped in the upper 30s in the Litchfield hills. Otherwise, normal weather prevails, and there is no precipitation threat anytime soon after tomorrow, so it'll be a rather boring week of weather for me, sadly, but very good news for the majority of you.

In the Atlantic- There is a low that has a minuscule chance of become Subtropical Storm Isaiah, but I would be very surprised, and it would have to be today or tomorrow, decreasing the odds further.

In the Pacific- Vance has weakened to a tropical depression just before landfall in Mexico, but this is going to join up with the system that is going to dump us with the heavy rain tomorrow, increasing the amount we'll get here in New England.

Today in weather history- November 5, 1894- A blizzard on Election Day crushes New England, dropping a foot of snow in the area and producing 60 mph winds in Rhode Island.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

11/4- Vote!

Good Tuesday everyone!

Today is going to be very nice considering it's early November. Temps will be in the high 50s and sunshine will prevail, though there will be some clouds on and off today. However, there are some changes in the forecast, but I think you'll actually find it agreeable. The washout for Friday is now on Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours, so I certainly think we'll still get an inch or two of rain, but at a time that won't nearly be as impactful. The one other change in the forecast from yesterday is that it now appears there will be some rain on Sunday, and there is a chance of a washout. The nor'easter threat for early next week has vanished overnight.

In the Atlantic- No development will happen anytime soon.

In the Pacific- Hurricane Vance and its' 105mph sustained winds are located 70 miles ESE of Soccoro Island, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the coast of Mexico as Vance approaches the region tomorrow. Otherwise, no new development is likely

Today in weather history- My computer has been very temperamental the last few days, so please forgive me for omitting this section today. I hope it works better soon...

Monday, November 3, 2014

11/3- It's cold!

Good Monday all

Well, I had my first flakes Saturday night here in Wallingford, there were some flakes clearly visible on car windshields when I woke up yesterday morning. Anyway, let's talk about what this week has in store shall we? First, an overview...

Today- Mostly sunny, highs in the 50s

Tomorrow (election day), and Wednesday- Partly cloudy with highs in the low 60s!! Enjoy it!

Thursday- Increasing clouds with rain developing. Highs in the 50s

Friday- Pouring rain! The true clunker of the week. Highs in the 50s

Saturday- AM flurries or showers, but I think flurries more likely. Highs in the high 40s/low 50s

Sunday- Partly cloudy, especially in the afternoon. Highs in the low 50s.

Alright, so now an explanation. The next few days look to be very nice due to a pretty nice change in the jet stream to our north, allowing that southern air to come up to find us. By Thursday, though, a low pressure system will pass north of the region, which actually keeps us warm, but it doesn't change a full day of heavy precipitation- it'll be rain instead of snow, though, until it may end as some flakes on Saturday morning. The next potential for significant snow appears to be a week from today.

In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon

In the Pacific- Category 2 Hurricane Vance, with its' 105mph winds, is located 505 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and it may impact the Mexican coast just south of the Baja later this week. With the formation of Vance, by the way, this becomes the third most active season on record in the Pacific basin.

Today in weather history- November 3, 1961- In what can only be described as a bizarre meteorological occurrence, since thunderstorms are formed by the heat of the day the majority of the time, but not always, a thunderstorm along a cold front in Casper, WY contains snow instead of rain.

Friday, October 31, 2014

10/31- Big big big big change for tomorrow

Happy Halloween everyone!!

Today is going to be fine, but the big weather story is what is going to occur tomorrow. The computer models last night decided to shift some 150-200 miles west with the nor'easter last night...so much so that it's actually now too close to the shoreline to produce snow. The problem is that it's going to be a gigantic rainstorm tomorrow, and a total washout, with frigid temps (in the 40s!). Yikes. It may end as some wet snow in most (if not all) areas, but accumulation is unlikely. As we move forward, though, Sunday looks nice, but absolutely frigid...and I doubt most areas get higher than 45-48. In fact, the early part of next week appears considerably warmer than normal, and most areas will see temperatures in the high-50s and low 60s. By Thursday, though, a rainstorm will come through and knock down the temperatures back to where the should be for November (low to mid 50s, though 60 degree days are not uncommon early in the month). As much of a change that this month of October is, November is even more so. A month from now, if we haven't had our first big snowfall, it will likely be close to occurring.

In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon.

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Vance formed at last last night, and is located some 450 miles south of Acapulco. Unfortunately, it is expected to make a dramatic northeast turn, and likely pose a threat to the Mexican mainland just south of the Baja by about Wednesday.

Today in weather history- October 31, 1876- A hurricane (called a cyclone in that region of the world) moves across the Bay of Bengal and clobbers northeast India, and demolishes an area that is vastly underdeveloped but densely populated, and one hundred thousand people are killed. Today, the situation is still the same but with dramatically more people and, in fact, it is believed that a similar storm could kill a million people.






Thursday, October 30, 2014

10/30- Halloween Eve looks cold

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be quite cold indeed. Last night's showers were associated with a cold front, and therefore it's going to be a much colder day today. I doubt temps reach 60 for most of us, and a 58 degree high temperature is likely being a tad generous for most. Either way, it's going to be a dry day, so it could be worse. Halloween looks fine, as the weather stays cool and dry. Saturday, rain moves in, and it appears as though it will rain for a significant portion of the day. Overnight, some flurries or light snow showers are possible without any accumulation. After that, we finally warm up, and the next chance for rain after that doesn't come until Wednesday afternoon.

In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon.

In the Pacific- After a day or so of delaying the inevitable, Tropical Depression 21-E has formed, and could become a hurricane heading directly for the Mexico mainland. Certainly it's worth watching!

Today in weather history- October 30, 1991- A coastal storm absorbs Hurricane Grace, which then rapidly intensifies in the Gulf of Maine and crushes New England with extreme wind and rain. One thousand homes are either damaged or totaled, with 4 to 7 foot surge and extreme winds for most. Chatham, MA, for example, sees a 78 mph gust. Eventually, the storm acquires a warm core and becomes a hurricane moving away from New England. By the time all is said and done, this becomes known as the "perfect storm" and is still very much an important chapter in New England weather lore.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

STORM WATCH UPDATE- Cancelled

Hello everyone-

Based on today's computer models, I think we are in the clear. All of them show the storm some 75-100 miles offshore, and the odds of a high-impact storm are now less than 10%, so I am cancelling the storm watch. Instead, expected some rain, maybe a flurry on Saturday night. I hope that everyone has a very good evening, and that you are happy with this outcome. Apologies for raising a false alarm, but I'd much rather do that and have you be prepared than to catch you off guard.

I'll update in the morning in full.

10/29- STORM WATCH UPDATE #3

Good Wednesday all-

Well, the overnight model runs actually may be converging towards a solution of a hit. The GFS came at least 50 miles further west, and has been trending that way the last several runs. Now the question is whether the cold air arrives in time to give us a primarily snowstorm, or if it's a big ol' cold rainstorm with some flakes flying at the end. Granted, a hit itself is still far from certain, but it is substantially more likely than it was yesterday, which increases the odds of something big for southern New England. For now, most of the news stations say rain during the daytime hours of Saturday, with it mixing with or changing to snow Saturday night. Based off the current data, this certainly seems very realistic, and is what I would go with as well if I was on the TV. Because I'm not...I have a bit more freedom to say "watch out, this could still be a big snowstorm" or "The forecast is highly uncertain, keep reading". I am not trying to advertise my post later tonight, but...I think we'll know significantly more by then. This is right on the edge of being historic right now, so keep reading. Otherwise in the weather world, next week looks much warmer and any snow we do get to accumulate will melt pretty quickly, and it looks like we'll go to the polls with temps in the high 50s or low 60s and bright sunshine. Halloween still looks a bit cold for trick-or-treaters, but the nor'easter will hold off until Saturday (Actually, it may be more of a Saturday into Sunday deal instead of a Friday into Saturday).

In the Atlantic- A disorganized area of low pressure just north of the Antillies has a small chance of development before wind shear tears it apart over the weekend. This would pose no threat to land whatsoever. The next name on the Atlantic name list is Isaias.

In the Pacific- Vance-to-be still hasn't developed, but it may pose a threat to Mexico later in the week.

Today in weather history- Today absolutely has to be the most significant date in Connecticut weather history for two days in back to back years


October 29, 2011- In one of the most unbelievable things of all time, a major nor'easter clobbers New England, and I mean clobbers. Millions lose power due to the leaves left on the trees, not to mention 76 mph wind gusts in Barnstable, Massachusetts, accompanied by heavy snow. 32" fall in Peru, MA, and 12.3" fall in Hartford, which is more snow than had fallen in all Octobers combined before this event. Ultimately, 39 people are killed and damage estimates around $2 billion.

Perhaps more importantly (if that's possible)

October 29, 2012- Hurricane Sandy becomes an extratropical cyclone (an extremely powerful one) as it makes landfall in New Jersey and becomes the nightmare storm for New York and the Jersey shore. Millions lose power, flood damage is massive, and Manhattan suffers a blackout, the tunnels and subways are flooded. By the time all is said and done, 148 people are killed and $68 billion in damage is estimated, making Sandy the second most costly hurricane on record (Katrina is the first by a clear mile). Also, this storm changes the way hurricane watches and warning are defined, since the NWS couldn't technically issue hurricane warnings for an extratropical storm. Now, however, the NWS has the ability to issue hurricane warnings in a similar case, since the impacts were certainly resembling that of a hurricane, essentially, from Jersey to Massachusetts.

Phew! That's all.













Tuesday, October 28, 2014

STORM WATCH UPDATE #2

Good evening-

Today's computer models have actually made me more perplexed than it was earlier. This is one of those classical times when you're going to here the TV people say "it could rain, snow a little, snow a lot, or be sunny". Unfortunately, all I can do really is break down what happened today in computer model data, and you can see why it can be so hard to be a weatherman.

The 0z ECMWF, the first computer model avalable today, and generally considered the most accurate, came in with a full-out blizzard with 7-14" statewide and 40mph sustained winds.

The 0z GFS and 6z GFS did not have the two systems coming together until the Gulf of Maine, leading to flurries.

The 12z GFS had the storm come together early, but completely miss out to sea, causing partly cloudy, albeit very cold, weather.

The 12z Euro showed an early phase...but brought the storm just far enough north to be all rain.

At this point, I was very pessimistic about the storm chances. In fact, one meteorologist on Facebook essentially wrote the storm off, which is a mistake this far off...

The 12z Euro ensemble mean (which takes the average of several computer model runs with slightly different input conditions to allow for the uncertain measurements) showed a giant blizzard for everyone.

The 18z GFS just came out. It's further east than the 12z, but it's still a miss.

The bottom line, as you can see...it's too early to call. Any of the above seem believable, so it's the waiting game!

I'd say the odds are below-

Sunshine- 25%
Cloudy with scattered flurries or minor accumulation- 40%
Big rainstorm- 15%
Blizzard- 20%

There you go- this can be so tough sometimes. Enjoy your evening, I'll see you in the morning.